The 10 month-month freeze, which Netanyahu reluctantly agreed to will end in September. The ultra-right wing parties in Netanyahu's coalition has declared that the freeze will not be renewed. Obama on the other hand has the mid-term elections to worry about. This belie the public show of amity. Bibi will not stand up to the "ultras" and Obama will not take on the pro-Israeli lobby and their potent friends amongst the Christian evangelicals
. The more Israel build on the West Bank, the less the chance of a Palestinian state. In 1993, when Oslo Accords was signed, there were about 110,000 settlers, now it is over 300,000 and growing.The more they build and the larger the numbers, the harder it will be to evict them. There are highly idealogical, fanatical Zionists amongst them, and they have vowed to fight Israeli soldiers who are sent to evict them and they are highly armed. This will provoke a civil war, which no one in Israel want.
The Palestianians have added to this, by the split in leadership between Hamas in the Gaza and the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank. Also, Arafat dilly, dallied over Oslo and that opportunity was lost and the mess became greater.
Ehud Olmert (Netanyahu's predecessor), had promised the Palestinians 98.1% of the West Bank and they will accept no less. Netanyahu has said that Israel will not leave the Jordan Valley and that he is opposed to the division of Jerusalem. The Palestinian will not accept this. The already truncated West Bank will be turned into an unviable collection of hamlets, separated by settlements and security roads, that turn what would be a 10 minute walk into hours of intimidation and humilations. You cannot build peace on this.
Can Obie and Bibi find some way around this? Obama has less domestic pressures than Netanyahu. Yitzak Rabin (who was publicly ridiculed by Netanyahu after his murder), understood the risk on Israel, of not having peace and he took the bold step. Bibi is not a risk taker and is too much the politician, in love with power. He will shimmy this way and that, in turn offering to talk and then change his mind, depending on the "political winds". In the meantime, the chances will become dimmer and dimmer as more and miore land is built ion, more and more settlers pour in, more and more buildings belonging to Palestinians are bulldozed, more and more roads are built , on which only settlers and other Israelis can travel and more and more the frustrations and privations of Palestinians, rise.
Will the bulldozers and cranes roll out in October? Unfortunately, YES.