Tomorrow is "The Day". The last week has seen the Ref/Con desperately trying to demonize Layton, with Harper raising the spectre of "socilaism", using the fear of investors leaving Canada if an NDP government is elected (they will not if they want to profit from Canadian resources , they want our oil, gas, timber etc.). The conservative Sun has also printed a story about Layton's visit to a massage parlour in the mid-90s, but this fear-mongering and character-attack will not work.They have also tried to scare Jewish voters, by accusing Ignatieff's grand-father of being a part of the "pogram" in Russia, and also trying to turn Jewish voters by questioning the Liberal party support of Israel (Cotler in Mont Royal is an example of someone being attacked). They have also tried to humanize Harper by getting him to kiss his wife in public..farcical.
The NDP, according to the polls are continuing to pick up support in Quebec and also in Ontario, British Columbia and to some extent in Sashetchewan and Manitoba. If this holds true, then Monday night will be quite interesting. The Liberals and the Bloc are trying to re-vitalize their base. If they cannot, they will be in big trouble. The Liberals must get the 850,000 that did not vote in 2008 to come back into the fold and I feel that because interest has grown as the campaign progressed, they will turn out to save their party from a humiliation, like 1984. The Bloc are a spent force, like the brittle Parizeau. Even some former riding officials are calling on Blociste to voe NDP.
If no one wins a majority, and that seems the likeliest outcome, the party with the most seats will be asked to form the next government. If they are unable to do so, or if they do form a government and they are defeated on a motion of non-confidence soon after, as likely to be the case, then the Governor-General will call on the the leader of the party with the next highest seats to form a government ( in 1926, the Liberals, under King won a minority and when they were defeated on a vote of non-confidence, soon after, King tried to get the GG Byng to call a new electio, but Byng did not accept the advise of King and instead asked the Conservative leader Arthur Meighen to form a government . He tried but was defeated in a motion of non-confidence (the Liberals were supported by the CCF, later NDP). An election was then held and the Liberals campaigning on the issue of the GGs refusal to heed the advice of the PM (the King/Byng Affair) won a majority.
This is the most likely scenario on May3, 2011.
The NDP, according to the polls are continuing to pick up support in Quebec and also in Ontario, British Columbia and to some extent in Sashetchewan and Manitoba. If this holds true, then Monday night will be quite interesting. The Liberals and the Bloc are trying to re-vitalize their base. If they cannot, they will be in big trouble. The Liberals must get the 850,000 that did not vote in 2008 to come back into the fold and I feel that because interest has grown as the campaign progressed, they will turn out to save their party from a humiliation, like 1984. The Bloc are a spent force, like the brittle Parizeau. Even some former riding officials are calling on Blociste to voe NDP.
If no one wins a majority, and that seems the likeliest outcome, the party with the most seats will be asked to form the next government. If they are unable to do so, or if they do form a government and they are defeated on a motion of non-confidence soon after, as likely to be the case, then the Governor-General will call on the the leader of the party with the next highest seats to form a government ( in 1926, the Liberals, under King won a minority and when they were defeated on a vote of non-confidence, soon after, King tried to get the GG Byng to call a new electio, but Byng did not accept the advise of King and instead asked the Conservative leader Arthur Meighen to form a government . He tried but was defeated in a motion of non-confidence (the Liberals were supported by the CCF, later NDP). An election was then held and the Liberals campaigning on the issue of the GGs refusal to heed the advice of the PM (the King/Byng Affair) won a majority.
This is the most likely scenario on May3, 2011.
