Trump's decision to place  punishing tariffs on Turkey is having a very unpredictable effect on an already unpredictable and unstable region. The Turks have decided to fight back and strongman Erdogan ( just re-elected) will not back down and will move Turkey closer to its neighbor but long time " threat" Russia. Already overtures have been made and Putin is willing and eager to step in and pull the long time N A T O member and the guardian of its Eastern flank, ( where many U S A military bases are located and from where many U S-led missions to Iraq, Syria etc. were launched), away from Europe and the military alliance. 
     Turkey as signaled its intention not to cave, by putting its own tariffs on American products and to take a loan of $15 billion from Qatar ( which has had a running economic battle with Saudi Arabia. Trump supports the Saudis in its row with Qatar ( an ally, but I guess the Saudi wealth and oil and the gaudy welcome have won Trump to their side). So here we have a NATO member being flayed economically by the ostensible leader of the alliance, turning for help from Russia and getting economic aid from Qatar ( Trump has weakened NATO and this will not help).
     The Saudis continue their genocidal war in Yemen, where they indiscriminately target civilians ( the latest being the busload of young students), with the assistance of US and Britain. Why? Oil and investments from the wealthy Saudis. They have also targeted ( as noted above)  Qatar ( even their camel herd were deported) and has picked a fight with Canada over Canada's request the women rights activist Badawi ( her blogger brother is presently imprisoned ). 
     The Saudis became furious ( they were afraid that others would join Canada and expose their woeful record on human rights). They severed diplomatic relation, asking the Canadian ambassador to leave; placed a hold on all new investments; cancelled all flights by Saudi airline and recalled thousands of students on scholarship in Canada. The Trudeau government has so far stood firm and has not even cancelled the $15 billion arms deal ( that was signed by the previous Harper government). Relations are tense and Canada's longtime allies US and GB have been silent ( I guess Human Rights is not as important as Saudi wealth, so they oppress their people, deny women rights, crucify and display  body them openly, carry out a genocidal war and the " democracies" remain silent.
     Canada and Turkey are both NATO members but in Trump's world that counts for little ( Trump has also placed punitive tariffs on many Canadian goods/products, even though we have an economic pact, NAFTA. 
     In the Middle East, Russia rules while US picks fights with Turkey and cancelled the Iranian nuclear agreement ( against the wishes of the other signatories and even though his own officials agree that Iran has not broken the agreement. Syria with the help of Russia and Iran is winding down its civil war ( which has killed thousands and driven tens of thousands into  forced exile). Iraq continues to be a battleground and so too Libya and  in Yemen the Saudi-led, US -backed coalition continues to decimate the population. Israel launches attacks on Gaza and even in Syria ( recently accused of assassinating a top Syrian scientist and targeting Iranian positions). 
     The region is a sizzling cauldron and the next eruption is not far off. It will be far ranging 

     Russia Risen from the ashes of the tired, spent and over-stretched USSR and the " drunken" Yeltsin give away ( to the West; to kleptocrats and to Communist turned capitalists apparatchiks), after an obsequious Trump heaped praise on Putin and says he believed him when he says that Russia did not hack the 2016  presidential election. Putin  stood smirking, listening to Trump condemning his own intelligence services/agencies, Democrats and Republicans, his own DNI chief Coats, and so many others. He continued to blame the " fake news" media, Mueller, and all who dare to criticize him and/ or support the investigations.
     Everyone ls lying...Comey, Mueller, Intel Agencies, FBI, CIA, DNI, Hillary, Obama, women who accuse him of assault, judges, climate change scientists, etc. but bot the Lt. Col. of the KGB, Putin, trained and experienced in the art. Why?
     When Putin was asked what he had on Trump, he lied and said he never met him ( not in 2013, not ever) and that he had nothing " kompromat"/ compromising on Trump. Then why is Trump so meek with Putin, so nice and so ebullient in his praise? 
     Why did Trump agree to meet in private, without his advisers? Why did the meeting last so long/ 2 hrs.? What was discussed that could not be shared with Pompeo, and others? Why did he not confront Putin about the Russian hack" Was it because, he had asked them to hack Hillary Clinton e-mails? Did they and what did they share with Trump? Why did he not raise the invasion of Crimea? Of Ukraine? What is Trump hiding? Why is he so afraid of Putin?
     Putin stride the world stage like a colossus and Trump has enabled and empowered him. Like Kim, he has given prestige and credibility to Putin and a legitimacy that both had lacked and what did he get in return. NADA/Nothing.
     Trump has weakened America. He has weakened NATO. He has weakened America's place as the leader of the democratic world. He has weakened America's Institutions and he has made a mockery of America's Constitution. He has strengthened autocrats from Putin to Kim to Duterte to Erdogan, those who hate Rights and Liberties, the free press and the independent judiciary and free speech and all things democratic. 
     Where are the Republicans whose motto has been free trade, the Military, the FBI, the American Way?. A few, McCain, Flake, have spoken out and condemned him but most have maintained a servile silence, looking out for their own political and financial needs and forsaking the Nation, which they swore to protect.
     America is in crisis and it has been brought about by the almost "treasonous" words of Trump and weak and bent " bananas" of the Republican party. Shame on them. America  a "pushover"; Trump " treasonous";disgraceful.
     

     The expectations had been high but then Trump began to tamp it down. What began a year ago with insults and threats... from name -calling Rocket Man to Dotard; from Fire and Fury to Missile over the sea of Japan has dwindled down to " i do not have to prepare" to " I can size him down in first minute" to  meetings between leaders of the North and South, with Pompeo to Rodhman in Singapore crying on CNN. 
 It had all the trappings of a reality clown circus and Trump made it more so with his temper tantrums and attacks on the G7 and especially on Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, and with ad hominem attacks from his underlings, outdoing each other to win their " master's" approval, from Trump calling Trudeau " weak and dishonest" to Kudlow accusing him of " stabbing in the back" and Navarro saying that " there is a special place for him in hell". 
     Trump left the G7 meeting in a hurry, not wanting anything to dull his forthcoming meeting in Singapore with Kim Jong-Un. He continued his attack on Trudeau all the way ( he had first stated that the tariffs on steel and aluminum were in " national security" interests and   Trudeau's pointing out about the past 100 years of close friendship, especially  a militarily) and that Canada will not " back down". The tirade quickly unified all political parties in Canada ( a rarity) and a resolution was passed unanimously in the Canadian parliament.
     Kim came in a plane provided by China ( but with his private toilet and limo , and two decoy aircraft), with his polished, groomed and well-dressed body guards, ready to "play". He took a tour of the City ( even having a selfie taken), waving and smiling , working the crowd, which shouted encouragement at him. It was a bizarre sight. This rabid human rights violator and alleged killer ( gave the orders allegedly), of a half-brother, an uncle and dozens of others about to be legitimized by the so-called leader of the " free world.
     While Kim was working the crowd, Trump was nowhere to be seen ( like a bride in purdah). The excitement was palpable, especially as the media kept revving it up with experts and speculations ( there was a lot of empty time to be filled and so many " experts" to conflate the issues.
     The meeting is to be held at the Singaporean island of Santosha ( sankscrit for "peace"...sam... completerly/utterly; tosh...acceptance, contentment) ). There will be a meeting of Trump and Kim with only translators and then a luncheon with others ( at these meetings the real work is done by specialists and then the leaders show up to sign any agreement). And this is how it played. 
     Trump and Kim signed a vague agreement ( short on details and/or open-ended). Trump played it up for all its worth, calling it " historic ( and the media lapped it up ) and stated that the U S has agreed to stop the " war games " and that they have agreed to " denuclearization" of the peninsula. That's it. Kim did give up anything except for this vague " denuclearization", whatever the hell that means.
     The South Koreans, whose initiative started this whole charade were left out and then with Trump's promise  of cancelling the " war games" and " denuclearization" of the peninsula ( which means no American troops, no nuclear weapons, no naval protection), they will on their own, forgotten and exposed. China is the other bid winner out of this. They were in control from the time Kim went to Beijing ( twice) and got on that Chinese plane. Without American troops( 29,00) and weapons in South Korea, they would clearly roam free and far That is if Trump understands what he promised and kept it. ( tomorrow he may, as usual change his mind)
     The only thing " historic" about this meeting, is the meeting. Nixon opening up China, by going there and meeting Chairman Mao; Carter with Begin and Sadat and the Camp David Accords was historic ; Clinton and Rabin and Arafat at the White House shaking hands, these are historic. They change things of import...legitimizing China; bringing peace to Israel and Egypt and bringing peace and reconciliation closer between Israelis and Palestinians. 
​     Kim came away with much. He sat as an equal with the President of the most powerful country in the world, the leader of the " free world" ( six flags each). He got legitimacy. He got prestige. He got praise and a whole lot a great propaganda video clips to show back home, his tiny hands being clasp by Trumps small hands) and a fawning ,smiling Trump leaning towards him, with a North Korean flag over his head. A grand, spectacular welcome awaits the conquering hero, who face the "Devil" and came out ahead. 

      It has been a week or so since Trump decided to put tariffs on steel and aluminum, from Canada, Mexico and the E U and the reaction was quick and fierce. Trump claimed that he was doing so for " security" reasons, saying to Trudeau, when he questioned that ( in a phone conversation)and stating that Canada has been a close ally militarily and otherwise for over a hundred years, from WW 1 to Afghanistan etc. Trump raised the burning of the White House during the 1812 war ( it was British troops under Ross who had done so, after the Americans had attacked York( now Toronto). It was actually Aug.24, 1814.
     The response came quickly with Canada imposing ta tariffs worth over $16 billion on American products, from steel and aluminum products to pizza, yogurt, coffee, maple syrup, chocolate, strawberry jam, orange juice, playing cards and whiskey/bourbon etc. These are very targeted, affecting many of the States that supported  Trump and continue to do so and where some prominent Republicans like Ryan and McConnell were elected from. The upcoming primaries and mid-term elections are a key.
     The Europeans have also responded with the European Commission president Juncker saying that " this a bad day for world trade. This is protectionism, pure and simple" and the French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire stating the tariffs are " dangerous and unjustified". The Europeans have so far imposed  over $4 billion on products from motor cycles, to Levi's jeans to bourbon. The Mexicans have also levied import taxes on such items as pork bellies, apples, cheese and various types of steel.
     The " targeted" strategy are a good starting point as jobs are threatened and prices are going up. Some powerful interests like the arch-conservative Koch brothers, the American Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers and the National Retail Federation have denounced the tariffs as " growth killers".
     China which Trump had accused of "raping" the American economy with its products and which has a huge trade imbalance with U S has so far not been targeted. Instead Trump has been making nice ( his daughter has just obtained more than a dozen deals and Trump himself stand to gain financially from Chinese investments in Indonesian projects that Trump has some stake), with China, which continues to increase its presence in the South China Seas, building bases on man-made islands.
     Trump's " national security" excuse( and it is that) is a cover for his " America First" platform, that he used so successfully to get elected. It is protectionist and destructive and only serve to boost his support among his " base". It may continue to do so, until the combine actions of Canada, Mexico and Europe take hold, increasing prices for consumers from manufacturing to agricultural etc. and threatening employment from California to Colorado( sleeping bags) to Florida( orange juIce) to Kentucky ( bourbon) to Maine( maple syrup)  Michigan to Pennsylvania ( felt pens, ketchup, fridges) to Wisconsin (lawn mowers, cheese, soy sauce) to South Carolina( Zodiac inflatable and sailboats). The list goes on.
     The upcoming G7 meeting in Quebec will be a test,  for TRUMP. Some are already calling it G 6+1. The lines are drawn.

     In a clear vote the United Nations General Assembly voted by a very large  margin of 128-9 to reject establishing embassies in Jerusalem. In a resolution co-sponsored by Turkey and Yemen and against the bulling threats from U S, to " take names" ( Haley ), only the U S, Israel, Guatemala, Honduras, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Togo, cowered while 21 countries, including Canada, Australia, Poland, Mexico etc. abstained . 35 countries stayed away. 
     G B, France, India, Greece, Egypt, Germany, Italy, Spain, Lebanon, China, Russia, Guyana, Barbados, Japan etc. stood up to the American bullying threats and voted in favor of the resolution. 
     One cannot blame the small Pacific Islands or the African and Latin American  countries, who depend so much on American aid for capitulating. 
 The Americans held a 'party" for their " supporters but of them, only Guatemala and Honduras have moved their embassy. 
     A similar resolution was vetoed by the Americans in the Security Council.
     This solves nothing, except exposing the failed tactics( once again) of the U S. The Palestinians continue to suffer and die; peace is nowhere n sight; Israel continues to spend more and more on its security, while  social, economic and other needs are underfunded and the corruption scandals surrounding Netanyahu remain.     

     Trump has threatened on a regular basis to tear up the Iran Nuclear Agreement, that was negotiated and signed by Pres. Obama and Germany, France, Britain and the E U. The deal would ease thew economic sanctions on Iran and in return Iran promise not to continue with its attempt to build  nuclear weapons. 
     Everyone agrees, even the Americans that Iran has kept its promise, but urged on by Netanyahu of Israel, Trump ( who has no liking for Obama ), has said that he will no longer honor America's commitment to it. The Europeans have made various attempts, including the recent visits by Pres Macron and Chancellor Merkl, to try and convince Trump to honor the deal. 
     If Trump goes ahead and take the U S out of the deal, it will have very serious consequences. The Iranian will  re-start  its nuclear program and develop a nuclear arsenal and the world will see other nations, perhaps Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa , even Japan and South Korea do the same for "Deterrence". The North Koreans will definitely carry on their program and any chance of an agreement  will fizzle out. 
     Europe will try to do an end around and try to convince the Iranians to continue to uphold the agreement. They will promise to continue their trade and relationship with Iran, and this will isolate America. it threaten the Europeans and any others who do not toe the American line but the Europeans will stand tough.
     America will lose the hard-earned credibility and respect it regained under Obama. No one will trust their words any future agreements ( Trump has pulled out of the Paris climate accord and from the Asian economic agreement and has threatened to leave NAFTA. Israel will be pleased but it is going to be short-lived as turmoil ramps up in the region ( already Hizbollah has gained electoral strength in Lebanon and militarily in Syria and the Saudis continue their genocidal war in Yemen)
     Little good will come from Trump withdrawal from the Nuclear agreement, but there will be much harm and the world will be a more dangerous place..

     Xi Jinping was unanimously confirmed for his second term as president by the 3,000 delegates at the  National People's Congress ( which had earlier voted to remove term limits on the presidency). In his speech, he immediately warned those opposed to China's march to global supremacy, that they face a " bloody battle"and that China would never be divided, a direct reference to at attempt by Taiwan to seek independence from the mainland. China has sought to unify the self-rule island since its creation by the defeated Nationalist forces (Kuomintang) of Chiang Kai Shek, 1949.
     This very strong nationalist speech was more than celebratory. It was a signal to all, especially those who oppose the Chinese expansion in the South China Sea and particularly the USA and Trump, who has been loudly ( what else) accusing China of unfair trade practices and threatening to impose a yearly tariff of $ 60 billion on Chines products.
     He declared a " new era", for China via " socialism with a Chinese characteristics', which will be achieved with increased military clout ( its budget has been increased) and technological advances, which will turn China into a top innovative country by 2035 and a " modern nation" on par with the US by 2050. " The Chinese people have been indomitable and persistent, we have the spirit of fighting the bloody battle against our enemies to the bitter end", he declared, in the Great Hall to thunderous cheering. The King/Emperor was beaming, as he looked over his fawning /enthusiastic "subjects".
     In the meantime Trump and the American media were titillating the American public with Stormy, Putin's election and the Russia probe.    

     Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada spent a week sight seeing. The trip started badly, when a mere junior minister met him at the airport and ended in a disaster with gaffes, diplomatic tension, and embarrassment.  He was accompanied by among others the Sikhs in his  cabinet ( he once boasted that he had more of them than were in the Indian cabinet, failing to understand that India was a very diverse country of 1.3 billion ),  which raised concern in India as they were seen as supporters of Sikh separatism also as  a convicted attempted murderer (Sikh) was given a private meeting with his wife and that he had been invited to a reception hosted by him ( he was " de-invited" after it became known in the media). Trudeau was more intent on playing " dress-up" as he met with Bollywood's Shah Rukh Khan, visited the Taj Mahal, the Golden Temple of the Sikhs and later the ashram of the Mahatma. No visit to Bangalaru the IT and industrial center where most foreign countries and corporations do business. He finally met India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and announced a business deal of $1 billion, but failed to mention that most of the jobs created,would be in India. 
     French president Emmanuel Macron came to attend the conference of the International Solar Energy ( ISA). He was met at the airport by P M Modi and was "royally" greeted by the Modi bear hug/ embrace. They then proceeded to open the largest solar plant in the state of Mirzapur, covering over 375 acres and capable of producing 75 MW of power, They were greeted by the state governor, were presented with " prasad" ( religious gifts) of red " chunaris" ( cotton stoles), which they both wore, wrapped around their necks, throughout the ceremony, throwing the switch and unveiling a plaque inscribed in Hindi, French and English. 
     They moved on to New Delhi, where the Conference was being held. It was attended by the heads of 23 nations and 10 ministerial representatives. There Macron lauded India's efforts to develop and spread solar energy and he pledged $680 million for solar projects in developing countries and tweeted later " we make Delhi this weekend, the world capital of the Sun". He also pledged to help India build the largest nuclear plant, capable of 9.6 gigawatts. 
     He made Modi very happy as the I S A is his brain child. He first proposed it in 2015, at the India /Africa summit in October in Delhi and then again at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in November. So far 121 countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America are associated with it and 61 have so far joined the Alliance ( 3/4 of the world's population, many lacking in energy). India has so far completed 13 solar projects and has pledged $ 1.4 billion for 27 projects in 15 other developing countries. 
     Pres. Macron came to India to work and promote France ( he did not go to Pondicherry, the last French enclave in India). It was business and he forged a closer relation between France and India. PM Trudeau came to win votes back home ( thus his visit to Punjab and Gujurat, the source of most  Indo-Canadians, and not Bangalaru.) and have a good time. He did and gained little but embarrassment.  

     It began with the Indian government sending the junior agriculture minister to meet him on his arrival and it cascaded into a comedy of errors and diplomatic faux pas. It was more a trip of pleasure and sightseeing and less of what it was purported to be, a trade mission and an opportunity to mend fences over perception of coddling up to Sihk separatists.
     Meeting Bollywood super star Shah Rukh Khan, dressed up in kurta pajama ( his wife in sari), looked out of place and the Indian media was quick to point out that Indians ( formally) wear a suit or a Nehru jacket. Then it was on to the Taj Mahal, pointing out that he was there before but not with father Pierre who was occupied with government business, but that he wanted to be there with his children ( he had no meetings with government officials as yet). Then it was on to Gujarat to visit the Mahatma's ashram ( P M Modi did not accompany him even though he is from that state). Next was a visit to the Golden Temple of the Sikhs ( this time dressed as a Sikh). There were no meetings scheduled with the Chief Minister of Punjab, who had raised concerns about the number of Kalastanis ( supporters of a separate Punjab), in Trudeau's cabinet). He as finally able to meet the Chief Minister and assured him that Canada supports a " united" India ( which of course re-opened the whole issue of Sikh separatism and the seemingly close ties of the Liberals to leading Sikh separatists, like Atwal.
     Jaspal Atwal was convicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison for the attempted assassination of an Indian cabinet minister ( he admitted to have fired the shoes). Yet he was allowed a private meeting with Sophie Gregoire-Trudeau ( wife) and had photos taken with cabinet minister, Sodhi and had also been invited to a dinner held by Trudeau. This was when the media, Indian, Canadian and even CNN and BBC really got into it. Why was this criminal and Sikh separatist/extremist invited? Who invited him? Why was their no vetting by the PMO and CSIS and how was he able to travel to India ( he was banned)? 
     Trudeau loves to do the bangra and he not only attended Sikh's celebration in their temples but he was attended the Kalsa celebration held by Sihk extremists. Politicians of all stripes court voters in the ethnic communities but manage to stay away from trouble. Trudeau and the Liberals seem to be unaware, uninformed or downright oblivious. 
     This trip to India was more about votes than trade. Why? Because rather than visiting Bangalore, the center of technology ( where most international corporations flock to do business), he chose to visit Gujarat and Punjab, people from these Indian states make up most of the 1.4 million Indo-Canadians and live in vote-important Greater Toronto, and Vancouver, that are key to electoral success. So he dressed up , met celebrities, toured important cultural sites and danced.
     This his third foreign fiasco. In China he tried to push his so-called " progressive" agenda and annoyed the Chinese and came home empty-handed. In Vietnam for the TPP meeting to finalize the agreement he angered the Japanese, the Australians and New Zealanders, when he decided at the last minute not to show up ( he was trying to send a message to China, which is not a member of TPP, that he was open to them and he screwed that up  too). 
     India has a population of 1.3 billion, with a middle class of about 400 million and growing . It has an annual  economic growth of nearly 7.5% and is opening up to the world and soon to be the third largest economy. We only  have about $8 billion in trade with them, mostly in lentil and peas ( and India has recently imposed a high duty on them , because of the need to grow its domestic producers). There is an opportunity and it as been set back , because of political opportunism and poor leadership.
    So Trudeau returns home almost empty-handed ( he claimed to have made $ 1 billion in deals but most of that is in India not Canada). He did make a splash, but it was not trade agreements or  closer India/Canada relationship. It was his wardrobe.

     It is the worst of times as the American System grind to a halt as the government is closed as a result of the failure of agree on a budget.  This despite that fact that the Republican party control both Congress and the Presidency. This can only happen this way, in the American System because of the written constitution, with a rigid amending formula and especially the Separation of power and the lax party discipline ( if you can cal the amalgam of groups, political party).
     This cannot happen in the Parliamentary system, with a majority party forming the government. Disraeli's blunt " principles be damned. Support your party". still hold sway, as party discipline is firmly in place. The leader of the party has to sign the nomination papers of all candidates running for the party and the party whip, ensures that they toe the line when a vote comes up. Fusion of Legislative and Executive powers ( where the  majority party form the government and the Prime Minister and his Cabinet ministers are chosen from that party and the members of parliament support whatever the Executive branch legislate.. This ensures stability in power and allows for clarity and consistency in governance ( it is clear what the government is doing and it is held accountable by the Opposition through debates and a Question Period and policies have to be consistent in order to avoid confusion)
     The only time a majority government can be defeated, is by a vote of non-confidence and that can happen only if a majority vote against them. This would need a full scale rebellion from members of the governing party and that does not happen. Discipline is maintained ( political careers and ambitions are at stake) and stability is ensured. 
     Trump boasts of his ability to make a deal is farcical. He may have closed business deals. but this is government and the rules are different. Compromise is what marks a successful government ( even majority governments in a parliamentary system realizes that it has to make compromise at times, even though it does not have, because bringing people together is what a successful government does.) It is not about ego; it is about serving the needs of the people.
     The " shut down" is the biggest and the latest of the many failures that mark the first year of Trump in office. He could not make a deal on the Muslim ban; he could not make a deal on the Wall; he could not make a deal on immigration ( except to threaten to deport the " DREAMERS"; he cannot find people of quality to serve in many vacant positions ( many diplomats are resigning ( the most recent is the ambassador for Panama) and so are many career public servants and some of those he has nominated have withdrawn their names because of poor qualifications and some are poorly qualified to do their jobs, with little or no experience or qualifications like the Education and Energy Sect. or even Tillerson ). North Korea continues to develop its nuclear program and all Trump can come up with is name-calling "rocket-man" etc. Foreign policy is in shambles ( recently NATO ally Turkey launch attack on America- backed and armed Kurdish rebels PKK ( HE GETS NO RESPECT) and NATO and EU has decided to ignore him and his erratic pronouncements. 
     China is rushing in to fill the vacuum, in Africa, Asia, building its Belt and Road ( the new Silk Route), while Trump fulminates. South Korea is making overtures with the North and as el talks and even got the North to sen athletes to the Winter games. Iran increases its influence in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon and Russia rides high with airbase and port in Syria and remains in Crimea and Ukraine. Trump's one success is Gorsuch on the Supreme Court ( even his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem was roundly condemned by most of the countries, including all the major players.).  All else is  Failure, and his popularity and job performance keeps dropping, the lowest of any president in recent times. Trump has not made America great. He has diminished it. China is Rising. Russia has respect and North Korea rushes on.