It began with the Indian government sending the junior agriculture minister to meet him on his arrival and it cascaded into a comedy of errors and diplomatic faux pas. It was more a trip of pleasure and sightseeing and less of what it was purported to be, a trade mission and an opportunity to mend fences over perception of coddling up to Sihk separatists.
     Meeting Bollywood super star Shah Rukh Khan, dressed up in kurta pajama ( his wife in sari), looked out of place and the Indian media was quick to point out that Indians ( formally) wear a suit or a Nehru jacket. Then it was on to the Taj Mahal, pointing out that he was there before but not with father Pierre who was occupied with government business, but that he wanted to be there with his children ( he had no meetings with government officials as yet). Then it was on to Gujarat to visit the Mahatma's ashram ( P M Modi did not accompany him even though he is from that state). Next was a visit to the Golden Temple of the Sikhs ( this time dressed as a Sikh). There were no meetings scheduled with the Chief Minister of Punjab, who had raised concerns about the number of Kalastanis ( supporters of a separate Punjab), in Trudeau's cabinet). He as finally able to meet the Chief Minister and assured him that Canada supports a " united" India ( which of course re-opened the whole issue of Sikh separatism and the seemingly close ties of the Liberals to leading Sikh separatists, like Atwal.
     Jaspal Atwal was convicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison for the attempted assassination of an Indian cabinet minister ( he admitted to have fired the shoes). Yet he was allowed a private meeting with Sophie Gregoire-Trudeau ( wife) and had photos taken with cabinet minister, Sodhi and had also been invited to a dinner held by Trudeau. This was when the media, Indian, Canadian and even CNN and BBC really got into it. Why was this criminal and Sikh separatist/extremist invited? Who invited him? Why was their no vetting by the PMO and CSIS and how was he able to travel to India ( he was banned)? 
     Trudeau loves to do the bangra and he not only attended Sikh's celebration in their temples but he was attended the Kalsa celebration held by Sihk extremists. Politicians of all stripes court voters in the ethnic communities but manage to stay away from trouble. Trudeau and the Liberals seem to be unaware, uninformed or downright oblivious. 
     This trip to India was more about votes than trade. Why? Because rather than visiting Bangalore, the center of technology ( where most international corporations flock to do business), he chose to visit Gujarat and Punjab, people from these Indian states make up most of the 1.4 million Indo-Canadians and live in vote-important Greater Toronto, and Vancouver, that are key to electoral success. So he dressed up , met celebrities, toured important cultural sites and danced.
     This his third foreign fiasco. In China he tried to push his so-called " progressive" agenda and annoyed the Chinese and came home empty-handed. In Vietnam for the TPP meeting to finalize the agreement he angered the Japanese, the Australians and New Zealanders, when he decided at the last minute not to show up ( he was trying to send a message to China, which is not a member of TPP, that he was open to them and he screwed that up  too). 
     India has a population of 1.3 billion, with a middle class of about 400 million and growing . It has an annual  economic growth of nearly 7.5% and is opening up to the world and soon to be the third largest economy. We only  have about $8 billion in trade with them, mostly in lentil and peas ( and India has recently imposed a high duty on them , because of the need to grow its domestic producers). There is an opportunity and it as been set back , because of political opportunism and poor leadership.
    So Trudeau returns home almost empty-handed ( he claimed to have made $ 1 billion in deals but most of that is in India not Canada). He did make a splash, but it was not trade agreements or  closer India/Canada relationship. It was his wardrobe.

     It is the worst of times as the American System grind to a halt as the government is closed as a result of the failure of agree on a budget.  This despite that fact that the Republican party control both Congress and the Presidency. This can only happen this way, in the American System because of the written constitution, with a rigid amending formula and especially the Separation of power and the lax party discipline ( if you can cal the amalgam of groups, political party).
     This cannot happen in the Parliamentary system, with a majority party forming the government. Disraeli's blunt " principles be damned. Support your party". still hold sway, as party discipline is firmly in place. The leader of the party has to sign the nomination papers of all candidates running for the party and the party whip, ensures that they toe the line when a vote comes up. Fusion of Legislative and Executive powers ( where the  majority party form the government and the Prime Minister and his Cabinet ministers are chosen from that party and the members of parliament support whatever the Executive branch legislate.. This ensures stability in power and allows for clarity and consistency in governance ( it is clear what the government is doing and it is held accountable by the Opposition through debates and a Question Period and policies have to be consistent in order to avoid confusion)
     The only time a majority government can be defeated, is by a vote of non-confidence and that can happen only if a majority vote against them. This would need a full scale rebellion from members of the governing party and that does not happen. Discipline is maintained ( political careers and ambitions are at stake) and stability is ensured. 
     Trump boasts of his ability to make a deal is farcical. He may have closed business deals. but this is government and the rules are different. Compromise is what marks a successful government ( even majority governments in a parliamentary system realizes that it has to make compromise at times, even though it does not have, because bringing people together is what a successful government does.) It is not about ego; it is about serving the needs of the people.
     The " shut down" is the biggest and the latest of the many failures that mark the first year of Trump in office. He could not make a deal on the Muslim ban; he could not make a deal on the Wall; he could not make a deal on immigration ( except to threaten to deport the " DREAMERS"; he cannot find people of quality to serve in many vacant positions ( many diplomats are resigning ( the most recent is the ambassador for Panama) and so are many career public servants and some of those he has nominated have withdrawn their names because of poor qualifications and some are poorly qualified to do their jobs, with little or no experience or qualifications like the Education and Energy Sect. or even Tillerson ). North Korea continues to develop its nuclear program and all Trump can come up with is name-calling "rocket-man" etc. Foreign policy is in shambles ( recently NATO ally Turkey launch attack on America- backed and armed Kurdish rebels PKK ( HE GETS NO RESPECT) and NATO and EU has decided to ignore him and his erratic pronouncements. 
     China is rushing in to fill the vacuum, in Africa, Asia, building its Belt and Road ( the new Silk Route), while Trump fulminates. South Korea is making overtures with the North and as el talks and even got the North to sen athletes to the Winter games. Iran increases its influence in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon and Russia rides high with airbase and port in Syria and remains in Crimea and Ukraine. Trump's one success is Gorsuch on the Supreme Court ( even his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem was roundly condemned by most of the countries, including all the major players.).  All else is  Failure, and his popularity and job performance keeps dropping, the lowest of any president in recent times. Trump has not made America great. He has diminished it. China is Rising. Russia has respect and North Korea rushes on.

       2017 began with the newly elected president of the US Donald Trump tweeting lies about the inaugural crowd and calling Mexicans "rapists and criminals", and ended with lies about his legislative record, which is the worst in recent years ( even though the Republicans control both Houses and the Supreme Court), with many Executive Orders and just the Tax bill ( which has benefited the wealthy and pauoerized the poor, who will be denied health care and will have to pay higher taxes), and also saying that Nigerians live in "huts" and that Haitians have "aids".
     In between Trump has tweeted about China helping N Korea with oil and not doing enough to counter its nuclear program, while at the same time entertaining Pres. Xi at his golf course and regaling him while his daughters try to win more contracts in China to sell their goods. He declared Jerusalem as the capital of Israel ( going against 70 years of policy and the UN founding principles of Israel ...the two-state, pleasing the Zionist Netanyahu and increasing the chances of conflict. He is opposed to the Iran nuclear agreement and has tried to undermine it, while supporting Saudi Arabia and its genocide on Yemen. His ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley threatened to take the names of countries voting against Trump's Jerusalem declaration, but only 7 countries ( Togo, Honduras, Marshall Is, Palau) plus US and Israel sided with US and 128 voted against ( GB, France, Germany...)...talking/threatening loudly, but carrying a small stick. 35 countries, including Canada and Australia abstained and 22 countries did not show up. America's not getting " great" but "weak"
     He started out attacking Europe and NATO and supporting Brexit. He welcomed  PM Theresa May and it was downhill for and the invitation to visit GB has met with stiff opposition. He met Macron and after " buddying up" Macron lost 20 % in the polls. Europe has been very critical of his policies whether towards the Middle East, Iran or Russia.
     In the case of Russia, Trump has praised Putin ( who is expected to win another term), has condemned the American Intelligence services, the FBI and the Mueller investigation into Russian collusion. In the meantime four officials who worked on his campaign have been indicted including his National Security Adviser Flynn, his campaign manager Mannafort. The investigation continues even though there is  constant pressure from Trump and some Republicans.  Many more of those associated with his campaign , including his son-in law Kushner have been or are being questioned.
     In the Middle East, Russia holds sway. With Iran and Hizbollah, they have blunted ISIL and have kept Assad in power and Russia has a much-wanted presence with an air field, military ases and a warm weather port. The US, Israel and Saudi Arabia are not happy. The Iran nuclear deal has allowed Iran to improve its economy ( even though there have been protests recently, allegedly stirred up by the CIA and Mossad.
     The North Korean have defied Trump and his any threats to reduce them to rubble. Tests continue and China is very wary of an unstable North as that would mean millions of refugees flooding in. It as recently been accused by Trump of not upholding the embargo and supplying much need oil to the North. Japan and S.Korea are on pins and needles, both over the tests and Trump's bluster.
     In Europe, Angela Merkel is still trying to form a coalition government,.She is the steady hand of Europe as Macron faces problems with his "reforms" with decreasing popularity and unions opposition. In Britain, May continue to muddle on with opposition within her party and the Irish Question ( what to do about Northern Ireland and its border with the Irish Republic...should it be soft or hard. It is also one of the stumbling points in the Brexit talks). These talks continue but the issues of payments, relationship, trade and financial, and the tens of thousands  of expats in Britain and Europe). It has a way to go and it will not be easy.
     China is riding high. With its Belt and Road, its  investment in Asia ,Australia and Africa and Pres. XI firmly in control, it looks like China has indeed RISEN, getting wealthier.and more stable. It is filling up the space left by Trump's withdrawal. 
     So Russia and China are more and more confident as America withdraws from the world, becoming more and more self-centered and isolationist, with the incompetent and divisive Trump, whether it be climate change, NATO, TPP, NAFTA , Jerusalem , Iran or North Korea. The world moves on.  

     THE SELF-PROCA
​LAIMED ZIONIST GOVERNMENT OF BENJAMIN NETANYAHU HAS POKED THE OTHER EYE OF THE PALESTINIANS BY NAMING ASUBWAQY STATION IN EAST JERUSALEM AFTER TRUMP. THIS IS TYPICAL OF NETANYAHU, WHO WANTS TO DEFLECT FROM THE ONGOING CORRUPTIONS CHARGES AGAINSTHIM AND NOT FOR THE FIRST TIME.
​     THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY VOTED 14-1 TO REJECT THE US/TRUMP MOVE OF THE ANERICAN EMBASSY. THE US USED ITS VETO POWER. THE MATTER WENT TO THE                   



 

,     In November 1947 when the United Nations voted to create the state of Israel, it also voted for a Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as a separate entity. In March 1949, after the first Israeli-Arab war ends, Israel was in control of  West Jerusalem and Jordan, of East Jerusalem. In Jan. 1950 Israel declared Jerusalem as its capital, but no country recognized it. Then after the Six Day War, Israel occupied East Jerusalem and then in July 1980 annexed it. The UN Security Council voted to reject Israel's annexation. 
     The United States has for the past 70 years never accepted, to move its embassy to Jerusalem, even though the US Congress, in 1995, passed a law to move the embassy, unless  the President signs a waiver. No president did until Trump.
     He had campaigned to do so and after he won, he made his son-in law Jared Kushner, a 36 year old, with no experience or education in foreign policy but a Zionist ( believe in the idea of Greater Israel...Eretz Israel, that the land is totally Jewish, an Orthodox Jew and major contributor to Israeli settlements on the West Bank. He was not only unqualified but clearly biased and driven by religious zeal. 
     Dec. 2017 and Trump has poured gasoline on the fire and the Muslim/ Arab world is joined by all other countries ( with the exception of Taiwan, Vanuatau). Netanyahu, the Israeli PM and a believer of Zionism ( very much influenced by his father, a leader in that movement), deliriously declared it " a historic day for Zionism" ( once voted in the UN as " Racism" as it excludes all non-Jews).   
     Trump sent his vice-president, the religious fundamentalist Pence, on a charm offensive to the Middle East but he was rebuffed by all leaders,who refused to meet him and Trump's gambit of photo ops with smiling Arab leaders, fell flat. The crown prince of US ally, Abu Dhabi said " it extended a life line to terrorists"and indeed it is as it will be used as a recruiting device in the roiling streets.
     Netanyahu has launched a European selling tour and in France, his first stop he was told by Pres. Macron that it is " a danger to peace". The next stop is a meeting with the foreign ministers of the 28 in Brussels and Europe has called for a detailed plan from Trump, who of course does not have one. There is a meeting of the Security Council and Trump's mouth piece, Nikki Halley has attacked the UN as being responsible for there not being peace. She is ignorant of US/UN history or just lying for her boss. 
     This action by Trump breaks international law; goes against UN resolutions supported by the US and the Security Council. He is a known Muslim-hater and has repeatedly tried to ban Muslims from entering the US ( his executive orders have been struck down by the courts but he keeps making them). Even the autocratic leader of Turkey has come out with a blistering attack  and there is a battle of vitriol between him and Netanyahu. 
     The Pope has expressed " deep concern", and British PM MAY, calls it " unhelpful" and "the British embassy is based in Tel Aviv and have no plans to move it". Marco Rubio and some Jewish lawmakers support the move but not Nancy Pelosi who calls it "premature" and warned of "mass protests".
     Those protests have broken out. The streets of Palestine....West Bank, Gaza are erupting and From Pakistan to Indonesia to Morocco to  Lebanon and in the Middle East and elsewhere and it will get worse. Already there has been one bomb attempt in New York
      Trump has sown the winds of division and the whirlwind of violence is forming. 

     Xi Jinping is now " China Dream"is what he has called his vision of  " The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation". He is now the Chairman of Everything, having overturned the system of shared power and concentrated powers in his hands, after his awe-inspiring performance at the just completed Communist Party Congress.
     He is now as powerful as Mao( China has arisen) and Deng ( to get rich is good). Chairman Mao with the Long March united the disparate ( regions and ethnicities ) and far-flung nation ( from the Pacific to Mongolia) and with the Cultural Revolution (the cleansing of the cadres and infusing of renewed commitment. Many were killed, imprisoned and reeducated, including Deng and Xi and power was consolidated but China stagnated. The Gang of Four tried to grab power as the heirs of the Revolution and of Mao's vision, but failed, were locked up and a new system of sharing power came into being in the 80's, but then Deng emerged all -powerful and set China on the way towards economic reform. 
     Deng saw that China had to open up its economy and so with his " to get rich is good", initiatives and incentives opened up China ( capitalism with a Chinese face....The State would still be central to everything and control the change). China exploded economically and became " the manufacturer to the world" With a huge and cheap and controlled workforce,  Western and Japanese investments and plants/corporations poured in and the economy boomed. There was a building boom and employment soared and cities grew as workers/farmers from the country-side flocked to them. 
     Man millions were lifted up economically and China became a major player in the world and not only economically but politically too. The Giant Panda could no longer be dominated by outsiders from the West. Now they came  and genuflected to make money. This would have an impact on their economy and employment as more and more corporations moved to take advantage of the Chinese boom.
     After Deng, growth continued but at a slower pace. A new stimulus/vision was needed and it came in the form of Xis aspiration to make China great again. It rested on four pillars....1. Restoring China to its former predominance in Asia...2. Establishing control over the territories of Greater China including Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macao and Tibet.......3. Recovering its control/ sphere of influence over the adjacent seas (e g. building islands in the South China Sea ).....Commanding respect from the "other great nations" ...U N , EU, US , Japan, Russia ......As a result it has founded a new international bank and invited other nations to join and they have; starting and funding the new Silk Road to tie the world to it by land, rail and sea; investing heavily around the world from Australia to Africa building railways, ports, and buying up much needed resources from farmlands to forestry to oil and gas. 
     Xi, a son of one of Mao's top aides, who was arrested and imprisoned during the Cultural Revolution ( 1962), when he was 9 yrs. old, sent to be " re-educated" in the country-side, lived in a cave in Yan'an, shoveling dung ( his older sister, deprived and abused, committed suicide), survived by embracing the " change" and made himself " redder than red"( according to a long time friend, "doing what was needed to claw back to the top". Persistence paid off ( he was rejected 9 times, before becoming a member of the Party) and now he leads a nation of 1.4 billion  and is the unquestioned head of the 89 million Communist Party.  
     Aggressive, persistent, ambitious, driven and supremely confident. There is no stopping him and his vision of a rejuvenated, triumphant China. 

     On a visit to Sochi on Tuesday, Bashar al Assad gave Vladimir Putin a huge hug Assad, who Also placed his head on Putin's shoulder and thanking him for Russia's "sacrifices" and for " saving our country". He should also thank Putin for saving him, as he was on the verge of losing control and power as rebel forces, al Nusra and the Islamic state of Syria rolled up large swaths of territory. Before the Russian intervention, Assad  controlled only about 19% of Syria. 
     The Russians went in massively, with army, navy and air force and with fighter from Iran and Hezbollah, turned the fortunes of Assad winning back about 50% of the territory, leaving the rebels in shambles and forcing the Americans to concede that Assad is there to stay, as long as Putin supports him. Assad's troops, with Russian help now also controls the four largest cities and 10 of 14 provincial capitals and its Mediterranean coast. 
     Russia now dominates the negotiating process ( Putin realizes that there is no military solution   to end the conflict . So an eight round of  U N sponsored talks are to be held in Geneva. One item not on the table is the removal of Assad ( the U S and its allies have backed off this demand, some time ago), and even elections are not on the table at this time, though Russia can change its mind and can hold some kind of election, that ensures that Assad stays in power. 
     The opposition is in disarray and their chief negotiator has resigned, complaining that foreign powers are carving up Syria and "brokering side deals to prolong the life of Bashar Assad's regime ( welcome to " big nation's interests a la 1920s when the Mid-East was carved up). Together with the U S ( Rex Tillerson, U S Sect. of State had boasted back in October that " the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end"), the Saudis ( who backed the Sunni rebels) are also big losers. Iran ( increase presence and stature) and Hezbollah ( Assad owes them and so do the Shia/Alewites) have emerged as winners. 
     The biggest winner is undoubtedly Putin and Russia. They will have a strong presence in the Middle East with an airbase, a warm water port and military bases, which will allow them to be an important player again ( they had lost this during the 20 years, with the collapse of the USSR and the rule of Yeltsin). Putin gambled and won, a harbinger of what will happen in the Ukraine and Crimea. Russia's prestige ( lost after the collapse of USSR and Yeltsin's rule) has been restored while America's is frittered away while Trump tweets. Is Latvia next?  

     The government of Spain has acted quickly to dissolve the Catalonian parliament, dismiss the government and calling an election for Dec. 21, 2017.
     The Catalans had voted by about 90% to secede on Oct. 1 but only about 43% of the people voted. The Spanish government tried to stop the vote from taking place and the Constitutional Court had ruled that secession was unconstitutional, based on the 1978 Constitution that was adopted after the end of the Francisco Franco dictatorship. 
     Calalonia is one of Spain's 17 regional governments, established by the 1978 Constitution and they were given broad administrative and legal powers, but Art. 155 allows the Central government to take " all necessary measures" to assure constitutional order. The threat and the vote for secession has pushed the Spanish government of P M Rajoy to use the " nuclear option" ( As Art. 155 is called). 
     The Catalan leader Carlos Puigdemont and his minister could face sedition charges. Much will depend on their actions and whether they call out their supporters to protest/ demonstrate. So far things have been relatively quiet but on Sunday, 29th, Oct. hundreds of thousands rallied in Barcelona in favor of staying in the union. 
     The E U and other European governments have signaled that they are in favor of Spain's territorial integrity and would not welcome or give any comfort to the Catalan separatists ( only the Bloc Quebecois and the Parti Quebecois, separatists parties in Quebec, Canada, have supported the Catalans, no surprise ). Quebec has had its own referendum in 1980 on sovereignty- association, but lost 60%-40%; and then again in 1995 on separation but with the Canadian dollar, passport intact, and lost 50.5 %-49.5%. After this the government of Jean Chretien passed the Clarity Act, stating that if a clear majority in a clear majority turn out, voted to separate, then talks can take place. Now 22 years late, in 2017, there is stability as the separatist vote has decreased. Catalonia and Quebec share some similarities. Each has about 7.5 million in population, and  a distinct language and culture, but economically Catalonia with 20% or so of the Spanish GDP, is more prosperous, a prosperity that owe much to the democracy, stability and economic alliances that Spain has enjoyed since 1978. That prosperity is now being undermined, in Catalonia in particular and Spain in general, as many businesses have threatened to move out and the E U has indicated that Catalonia is not welcomed.
     So here we are. Spain has recently ended its long struggle with the Basques, but now the Catalans are rocking the Spanish boat and instability and insecurity loom.    
     

     Angela Merkel will be Chancellor for a fourth term, even though her party suffered a 8% loss of support. Her "largese" of accepting a million refugees was the main reason for this loss and benefited the far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-Europe AfG, which won 94 seats and 13% of the votes, much of which came from East Germany/Berlin, where it received 22% of the votes ( only 11% in West)
     Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (C D U), dropped from 40 % to 33% and lost 67 seats, from 313 in 2014 to 246. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) also lost votes dropping 5% to 21% and losing 40 seats ( from 103 in 2013 to 153. The  Greens won 67 seats ; the FDP ( Free Democratic Party) won 80 and the other 80 seats or so went to smaller parties ( there is a 5% threshold). The AfG are already in disarray as the chair of the party, Frauke Petry, has stated that she will not sit with the party in the Bundestag as she distanced herself from the extreme right .
   The Electoral System is a mixed  member Proportional Representation(P R). Voters have two votes. One is to vote for a candidate in your constituency and the other for the Party List ( where the seats are distributed according to the percentage received by party) Half of the 630 members of the Bundestag ( Lower House ) are elected in districts, where candidates with the most ( plurality) votes win. The second half are elected from Party Lists ( some top members of party may run in both, in case they lose at the district). Some voters may split their vote voting one way in district and another way for List. Any complaint is heard in the Federal Constitutional Court . Voters or candidates must be 18 or over. Elections are held every 4 years and on Sunday ( Art. 38 of the  German Basic Law.
     Most governments in Germany have been stable coalitions  and it will be no different this time. Expect the Black (C D..246) to join with the Green ( Greens... 67 ) and the Yellow ( FDP... 80 ), for a total of around 396, a majority. This is being called the " Jamaican Coalition".