Polls/Statistics are like bikinis, significant not only for what they reveal but what they conceal. They are a measure of a particular issue at a specific time. What that measure is at any time is a reflection of opinions which are influenced by a variety of factors at play at that time. What those opinions are at another time, maybe significantly different when and if those factors changed or are replaced by other factors. They are as Shimon Peres noted like " perfumes, great to smell but dangerous to swallow".
Polls are not scientific but merely a yardstick of influences and emotions.Thus the recent polls showing the NDP gaining in popularity, are nothing more than the recent headlines/scandals/missteps by other parties, for example the Blocs and its continued raison d'etre of sovreignty, the revealations of the Ref/Cons penchant for interfering with and their trying to influence appointments (the Montreal port) and their alleged fraudulent electoral actions (2008) and fears of Harper's "hidden" agenda, together with Ignatieff's failure to connect with the voters.
The next week will be telling. Obviously, a majority Ref/Con govt. is out of the question. Will the turn out be more than the 60% of the last election? Not likely. Voters are turned off and will either stay away in droves or they will hold their collective nose and vote for the least likely threat. As such they are casting about for a place to park their votes and at this time, the NDP is the least threatening. At best the NDP will get some of those votes, but not enough to make a significant difference. Their support is too widely dispersed. They may turn to be the spoiler in close races, splitting with the Liberals, which will allow the Bloc to keep their seats in Quebec and maybe win one or two additional seats from the Ref/Con in the Quebec City area and in the 905 Totorto (Brampton, Mississagua) areas allow the Ref/Con to win seats with a slim margin of votes.
A "pizza" parliament will be the outcome.
Polls are not scientific but merely a yardstick of influences and emotions.Thus the recent polls showing the NDP gaining in popularity, are nothing more than the recent headlines/scandals/missteps by other parties, for example the Blocs and its continued raison d'etre of sovreignty, the revealations of the Ref/Cons penchant for interfering with and their trying to influence appointments (the Montreal port) and their alleged fraudulent electoral actions (2008) and fears of Harper's "hidden" agenda, together with Ignatieff's failure to connect with the voters.
The next week will be telling. Obviously, a majority Ref/Con govt. is out of the question. Will the turn out be more than the 60% of the last election? Not likely. Voters are turned off and will either stay away in droves or they will hold their collective nose and vote for the least likely threat. As such they are casting about for a place to park their votes and at this time, the NDP is the least threatening. At best the NDP will get some of those votes, but not enough to make a significant difference. Their support is too widely dispersed. They may turn to be the spoiler in close races, splitting with the Liberals, which will allow the Bloc to keep their seats in Quebec and maybe win one or two additional seats from the Ref/Con in the Quebec City area and in the 905 Totorto (Brampton, Mississagua) areas allow the Ref/Con to win seats with a slim margin of votes.
A "pizza" parliament will be the outcome.
