If Peladeau wins the leadership race, he will have to wait for at least three years for another general election and hope that the Lioberals, under Couillard has so alienated voters that they would turn to him. In the meantime the CAQ, would seem to e the party that has the most to lose from a Peladeau-led PQ. Those who deserted the PQ in the last election for the CAQ and the federalists who left the Liberals will have to decide whether to remain or return to the fold. That will depend on what Peladeau says and does between now and then and it is a longtime with many barriers and pitfalls.
The Liberals will benefit from this polarization. All they have to do is to avoid any scandal and even though some of their policies have caused concern among day-care workers and the police, firefighters, municipal and provincial unions over pension reforms, the public at large have generally been supportive.
It will be interesting to see whether Peladeau can re-unite and re-ignite the Parti Quebecois with his single-minded message of independence or his cry of "Pays" will become " Mon pays, c'est hiver."