Mir Hossein Moussavi.........Well-connected Insider.

He was close to the founder of Iran's Islamic revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, but has recently found himself at odds with the present Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his brother-in law, having joined the group around former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, who withdrew his candidacy for the presidency in his favour. This insider status would seem at odds to his being projected as someone who would challenge the core principles and institutions of the Islamic Republic. He was Prime Minister from 1981-89, after he had served as foreign minister and as editor of the official newspaper of the Islamic Republican Party, which he used to wage a relentless attack on the then President Banisadr, who fled into exile to France. His mentor, Ayatollah Khomeini, supervised his rapid rise to power, first appointing him to the Revolutionary Council, then as editor of the party newspaper, then Foreign Minister and in 1981 Prime Minister. He was labeled by the Reagan administration as the " most radical in the leadership"', for his policy of nationalization of foreign companies , his support of the " fatwa" issued against Salman Rushdie, accusing the West of " cultural conspiracy" and saying that "Iran's firm decision on( Rushdie) issue will ensure the country's independence and dignity". Also he was Prime Minister in 1988 when thousands were executed (according to Human Rights Watch). He was out of the political limelight for 20 years, only recently returned to challenge Ahmadinejad for the presidency as the candidate of the faction led by Rafsanjani.

      Ayatollah Ali Khameini, is the Supreme Ruler as head of the Guardian Council, of the Armed Forces and of the Revolutionary Guards. He has the final say on all matters of state and religion. He has accepted the result as a divine sanction and in a speech on Friday, reiterated this position very strongly, warning those who protest. In the meantime, Ahmadinejad has been in Russia getting the blessing of Iran's close ally and neighbor, meeting the Russian president. Ahmadinejad is the Ayatollah's choice and his support for him has not wavered so far. It will not waver, for to do so, is to be seen as a sign of weakness and a threat to his control. Rafsanjani, Khatami and Moussavi have been put on notice by the Ayatollah and it will be  their response that will determine whether there will be violence. Moussavi is no Gandhi or Mandela or Obama orAyatollah Khomeini, who famously stated that ' I will strike with my fists at the mouths of the government". Ten days later, Feb.11, 1979, the government collapsed. He lacks the charisma, and is described as having a " soporific speaking manner". He is however described as" resolute" and whose tenure as prime minister and his connection to the early days of the "revolution", supposedly, has given him experience and toughness. We are in for some interesting times. Can Mossavi lead? I think not.

      This a battle between Khameini and Rafsanjani, who is the head of the Assembly of Experts, who are responsible for selecting, supervising and removing the Supreme Leader. Rafsanjani is also in charge of the Expediency Council, which is responsible for mediating and resolving disputes between government bodies. Will they dare to take on the Supreme leader and his Revolutionary Guards and the Military? Student protests in 1999 and 2003 were harshly put down and let's not forget the thousands that were executed by the Moussavi government in 1988.

" Force is the mid-wife of every old society, pregnant with a new one" Karl Marx.

Is the old ready to give way to the young? Remember Tianamen?  In Iran, the force is in the hands of the "old"and unless there is wholesale desertion, and that is highly unlikely, the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard will prevail.

      It is the 24th, and the protest much to the chagrin of the West and especially CNN has petered out.This is not 1979, when the charismatic Khomenei, returned from exile to overthrow the corrupt Shah and his American and British masters. The former shoe salesman on the Via Veneto had been placed in power by the CIA and the British, who overthrew the newly eleced Mossadegh in 1953. Twenty-six years of terror and repression followed. Thousands were killed, imprisoned and exiled. It all came tumbling down in 1979, when the Ayatollah Khomenei, who had been exiled to Iraq and then France, tapped in to the discontent and using Islam as his banner seized power. The hapless Shah was abondoned by his 'friends' in the West, who would not even allow him the courtesy of an honourable exile. Iran was declared an Islamic Republic and has operated as such for the past 30 years. Islamic institutions were created and have become firmly entrenched. Moussavi, Rafsanjani, Khatamini and others became the builders. They established  a system that was answerable to the Supreme Leader (Khomenei and his successors) and his religious advisers. They established and gave unfettered powers to the Revolutionary Guards as the guardian of the New order.

      Now the Supreme Leader Khamenei  has spoken. The election result has been divinely sanctioned. The Revolutionary Guards are in the streets, and the 'basij' has been set loose on the discontented. Moussavi has whimpered into oblivion, and the "exiles" have been left to be "fill ins" for CNN and other media who were starved for "news, and "blood'", in the streets of Teheran. Israel is happy however. They need the 'bogeyman' Ahmadinejad, in power. They and their"amen" lobby in the USA can rant and rave about Iran's nuclear program under the "crazy" Ahmadinejad. This will not allow them to continue to imprison the West Bank and the Gaza and the people caught in the vicious spiral of hopelessness and misery, indefinitely . They may continue to steal land and build settlements, and grow vineyards, but their time is limited. Netanyahu and Leiberman will lose in the end.

      President Obama has acted with aplomb. He has resisted the urgings of the Republicans and the Conservative "loudmouths" to take a "tougher stand". Britain has become the Great Satan. Obama has not expended his capital. He has to deal with the Iranians, and he is not giving them an excuse to cop out.

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