The shooting down of the Russian fighter-jet by Turkey, has serious implications. It will be a decision that Turkey will rue. The autocratic egomaniac, Erdogan,in his billion dollar palace, may be relishing his action but it is the Turkish people who will pay the price for his "moment of glory". Putin, the former KGB colonel, will take action, but he will bide his time, as he receives the French President Hollande.
The Russians will first respond economically, halting the "Turkish Stream" pipeline and the $10 billion Gazprom investment to build it to bring Black Sea oil to Europe, as well as the Ahkuyu nuclear plant. Then it will ramp up the support for Assad (Erdogan wants him out and so did the Americans and Brits); increase the bombing of the so-called moderate Syrian rebels, especially the Turkomen, along the Turkish border and send arms to the Kurds ( this latter will be the one that Turkey will be most concerned about).
The lines are now clearly drawn. Russia and the Shia forces of Assad, Iraq and Hizbollah on one side and Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Turkey on the other side, with the Americans, French and Brits in the middle. The Kurds ( who used to say that "only the mountains are our friends"), are the big winner as their beloved Kurdistan, becomes more and more a reality. The big loser will be Turkey ( NATO will not be drawn into a war on its behalf against Russia. It would be suicidal and Russia is more and more becoming the one that calls the shot in the fight against ISIL).
Iraq was created out of the remains of the Ottoman Empire, by the British and the French, carving out "colonies" for themselves in the area. The forced union of the Kurdish north with the Sunni centre and the Shia South, is no more. There is no going back. The Kurds will have their country. The Sunnis of Iraq and Syria may form their own country and the Shias will do the same or join in a federation with Iran.
Iran will emerge stronger, especially after the economic sanctions are lifted and will be the main influence in the region. Saudi Arabia will become the mischief-maker, doing all it can, to spread its Wahabbist version of Islam and may well form an even closer relationship with ISIL, al Nusra and Sunnis of Syria, as Syria will be divided between the Kurds (joining their brethren in Iraq and Turkey...which Turkey will try to stop but will fail), the Alewites/Shias supporting Assad and the Sunnis.
The map of this area will be redrawn and what will emerge will be a more realistic ( geographic, religious and cultural) stable region ( not immediately, for battles will be fought).
The West, specifically USA, will huff and puff, but will accept this outcome. Russia will play a larger role and its presence will be entrenched.
The Russians will first respond economically, halting the "Turkish Stream" pipeline and the $10 billion Gazprom investment to build it to bring Black Sea oil to Europe, as well as the Ahkuyu nuclear plant. Then it will ramp up the support for Assad (Erdogan wants him out and so did the Americans and Brits); increase the bombing of the so-called moderate Syrian rebels, especially the Turkomen, along the Turkish border and send arms to the Kurds ( this latter will be the one that Turkey will be most concerned about).
The lines are now clearly drawn. Russia and the Shia forces of Assad, Iraq and Hizbollah on one side and Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Turkey on the other side, with the Americans, French and Brits in the middle. The Kurds ( who used to say that "only the mountains are our friends"), are the big winner as their beloved Kurdistan, becomes more and more a reality. The big loser will be Turkey ( NATO will not be drawn into a war on its behalf against Russia. It would be suicidal and Russia is more and more becoming the one that calls the shot in the fight against ISIL).
Iraq was created out of the remains of the Ottoman Empire, by the British and the French, carving out "colonies" for themselves in the area. The forced union of the Kurdish north with the Sunni centre and the Shia South, is no more. There is no going back. The Kurds will have their country. The Sunnis of Iraq and Syria may form their own country and the Shias will do the same or join in a federation with Iran.
Iran will emerge stronger, especially after the economic sanctions are lifted and will be the main influence in the region. Saudi Arabia will become the mischief-maker, doing all it can, to spread its Wahabbist version of Islam and may well form an even closer relationship with ISIL, al Nusra and Sunnis of Syria, as Syria will be divided between the Kurds (joining their brethren in Iraq and Turkey...which Turkey will try to stop but will fail), the Alewites/Shias supporting Assad and the Sunnis.
The map of this area will be redrawn and what will emerge will be a more realistic ( geographic, religious and cultural) stable region ( not immediately, for battles will be fought).
The West, specifically USA, will huff and puff, but will accept this outcome. Russia will play a larger role and its presence will be entrenched.
