Turkey held a referendum, April 16, 2017 and the result was very close, dividing the country between the rural conservatives Islamists of Recip Erdogan and the urban, liberal, secular-oriented urban centers of the opposition. Prior to the election, tens of thousands were arrested, fired and otherwise harassed(100,000+including judges, lawyers, teachers, journalists, military and police officers lost their jobs and 40,000+ were arrested, including pro- Kurdish lawyers). Hundreds of non-governmental organisations and news outlet, as well as many businesses, from schools to fertility clinics were shut down. Erdogan lasted European countries calling France and the Netherlands "Nazis" and opponents at home as supporters of terrorists.
The turnout was very high at 86% of the 55 million eligible voters, and Erdogan received about 51% of the votes but the Opposition has claimed ( and international observers have concurred) that there was widespread vote tampering, and that the Electoral Board has counted ballot boxes that were not officially stamped.
Erdogan has claimed victory and this has begun the process of changing Turkey from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, with the President is both Head of State and Head of Government ( the office of Prime Minister has been abolished), with sweeping powers to appoint judges, declare a state of emergency, dissolve parliament, issue laws by decrees, an executive presidency with the potential to become a dictatorship ( especially given the autocratic actions and pronouncements of Erdogan, who can remain in power until 2029.
Turkey faces a lot of problems. There is instability and terrorism at its borders, with hundreds of thousands of refugees flooding in. There is war in Iraq and Syria and with Kurdish elements fighting fro their Kurdistan. There is economic depression and with the tourists staying away in droves, it will get worse and of course, there is the move to a more Islamic society ( away from the secularism that was introduced by Kemal Ataturk in 1923).
As things degenerate and they will, Erdogan will assume more and more powers and become more and more autocratic and there will be more violence and upheavals, but with a defanged military, chaos will reign, and the very foundations will be affected. Can Turkey withstand this. No. ( This is not France in 1958, which was beset with institutional instability ( 26 governments. between 1946-58); at home; military defeat in Vietnam ( Dien Bien Phu, 1954), and turmoil in the colonies in Africa ( Algeria), when they brought Charles de Gaulle from self-imposed exile (1946), gave him power to write a new constitution, which he did successfully , creating the 5th Republic, giving himself Executive powers and restoring stability and security, which France as enjoyed until today.)
But today's France is facing problems again. There is terrorism, economic depression, refugees , incompetent leadership and in the upcoming presidential election of April , 22, four candidates that offer little. There is the far right, anti-Muslim, Anti- immigrant, anti-Europe Marine Le Pen ( who ousted her pied-noir father, Jean-Marie from the leadership; the old, white, Catholic conservative, rural voters of the disgraced former front-runner, Fillion ( he and his British-born wife are being investigated for embezzlement ; the 39 year old, investment banker and economy minister, Macron in the center "calling himself a progressive and a reformer and the surprise of the season Jean-Luc Melenchon, the far left/ hardline communist, who has been making inroads with his attacks on the banks and the 1%, running a glitzy campaign with holograms of himself delivering blistering speeches at various venues at the same time. This will be settled at the Second ballot and the only thing certain is that Le Pen will be one of the candidate, and the other will be either Macron or Melenchon ( it will be like in 2002 when voters held their nose and voted for the detested Chirac in order to stop pere Le Pen)
In Britain Theresa May has seen the polls and on the 279 day of her 280 day in office, she took a walk in the hills of Wales and decided to go back on her word not to call a snap election. She has 3 more years in this mandate but decided to hold an election on June 8, 2017. Will the voters punish her for this? More to come. .
The turnout was very high at 86% of the 55 million eligible voters, and Erdogan received about 51% of the votes but the Opposition has claimed ( and international observers have concurred) that there was widespread vote tampering, and that the Electoral Board has counted ballot boxes that were not officially stamped.
Erdogan has claimed victory and this has begun the process of changing Turkey from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, with the President is both Head of State and Head of Government ( the office of Prime Minister has been abolished), with sweeping powers to appoint judges, declare a state of emergency, dissolve parliament, issue laws by decrees, an executive presidency with the potential to become a dictatorship ( especially given the autocratic actions and pronouncements of Erdogan, who can remain in power until 2029.
Turkey faces a lot of problems. There is instability and terrorism at its borders, with hundreds of thousands of refugees flooding in. There is war in Iraq and Syria and with Kurdish elements fighting fro their Kurdistan. There is economic depression and with the tourists staying away in droves, it will get worse and of course, there is the move to a more Islamic society ( away from the secularism that was introduced by Kemal Ataturk in 1923).
As things degenerate and they will, Erdogan will assume more and more powers and become more and more autocratic and there will be more violence and upheavals, but with a defanged military, chaos will reign, and the very foundations will be affected. Can Turkey withstand this. No. ( This is not France in 1958, which was beset with institutional instability ( 26 governments. between 1946-58); at home; military defeat in Vietnam ( Dien Bien Phu, 1954), and turmoil in the colonies in Africa ( Algeria), when they brought Charles de Gaulle from self-imposed exile (1946), gave him power to write a new constitution, which he did successfully , creating the 5th Republic, giving himself Executive powers and restoring stability and security, which France as enjoyed until today.)
But today's France is facing problems again. There is terrorism, economic depression, refugees , incompetent leadership and in the upcoming presidential election of April , 22, four candidates that offer little. There is the far right, anti-Muslim, Anti- immigrant, anti-Europe Marine Le Pen ( who ousted her pied-noir father, Jean-Marie from the leadership; the old, white, Catholic conservative, rural voters of the disgraced former front-runner, Fillion ( he and his British-born wife are being investigated for embezzlement ; the 39 year old, investment banker and economy minister, Macron in the center "calling himself a progressive and a reformer and the surprise of the season Jean-Luc Melenchon, the far left/ hardline communist, who has been making inroads with his attacks on the banks and the 1%, running a glitzy campaign with holograms of himself delivering blistering speeches at various venues at the same time. This will be settled at the Second ballot and the only thing certain is that Le Pen will be one of the candidate, and the other will be either Macron or Melenchon ( it will be like in 2002 when voters held their nose and voted for the detested Chirac in order to stop pere Le Pen)
In Britain Theresa May has seen the polls and on the 279 day of her 280 day in office, she took a walk in the hills of Wales and decided to go back on her word not to call a snap election. She has 3 more years in this mandate but decided to hold an election on June 8, 2017. Will the voters punish her for this? More to come. .
