The NDP continue to move to the center; the Liberals are campaigning left of center and the CRAP has hired a new rabble rouser to get out of the doldrums. This is a last ditch gamble by Harper, to bring in this Aussie gunslinger , who is known for his racist, anti-immigrant rant, in both Australia and Britain. You can already see his handiwork with Harper's statement about " old stock" Canadians.
Whereas the Duffy trial had had Harper on the defensive, the refugee issue ( where Harper has consistently refused to budge from his fear-mongering about security risks) has become the new millstone. Even retired generals, D'aillaire, Hillier and McKenzie have come strongly in favor of bringing 50,000 or more of these hapless people to Canada ( in 1979 Canada brought 30,000 "boat people"), saying that it is logistically manageable ( on Sunday, Sept 20, immigration minister Alexander, announced a more flexible approach to bring in 10,000, including Syrians). This is, without doubt, in response to the continued and relentless demands from provincial premiers, mayors, church and other agencies, influential and even ordinary Canadians. It had become an election issue and thus Harper had to give in or face alienation and wrath of voters, especially coming to the forefront with his "old stock" statement.
Provincially, the Mulcair/ NDP are ahead in Quebec and BC. The Trudeau/ Liberals are doing well in the Maritimes. The Harper CRAP are looking to holding their own in Alberta ( where the NDP expect to improve) and Saskatchewan. In Manitoba the issue of race vis a vis the treatment of First Nations may see the NDP win more seats ( especially with First Nations candidates and better turn-out. There are 51 seats where their vote can make a difference.). It is vote/seat rich Ontario that holds the key. The NDP has to improve here; the Liberals seem to have clawed back into the race, getting back their traditional vote among South Asians, Italians and Jews, in the 905 area and the Conservatives are desperately hoping to hang on to most of their seats and have been playing the ethnic card with Jews, Ukrainians, Poles and other East Europeans ( they have even brought out former Canadian, now American Gretzky to bolster them).
The next month will see "temperature rising". Harper has shown that he is willing to do and anything; hire "gunslingers" like the "lizard of OZ"; use wedge issues.... religion, immigration, fear of the "other" etc . Mulcair has brought a financial statement that did not get much traction and has to do more explaining. He will come under greater and nastier attack from Trudeau and Harper. Trudeau has to be careful. No gaffs but stick to his script, no free wheeling and he still has to show that he has what it takes to be PM.
The next debates will be important and the scrutiny will be intense.