Polls are dangerous in a democracy, especially when there are so many being done, releasing "findings", that are contradictory, not knowing whether they are "plants"; how they were conducted and what was the question and the sample. Polls tend to destroy public opinion, even as they sought to decipher what that opinion is. They create band wagon effect, especially amongst the least informed public, who glance at headlines or get snippets of news from their favourite media outlet.
The past week has seen a rise in Liberal support (34%); a steadying of Conservative support (31% and a decline of NDP (26%) support. Elections in Canada are about the provinces/regions. This is why it is necessary to know how these polls are conducted; where and the sample. Increases in seats in especially Ontario and BC ( also Quebec and Alberta) require redrawing of boundaries and understanding of where the new seats are...urban or suburban or rural. The Conservatives under Harper have done woefully in urban centers like Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver; the have done well in rural/ agricultural centers. The NDP have done well in Quebec and urban areas. Where are the new seats and how many of the rural seats have affected? In the case of the 905 in Greater Toronto, how is the vote breaking? Have the Liberals been able to win back those defected in the last election? Have the NDP been able to make inroads? Is the Conservative holding? How are the Greens doing in BC? Are they drawing support away from the Liberals or NDP? In Alberta is the economy and the recent NDP victory having an impact on Conservative support? We know that the Maritimes ( especially NFL) are going Liberal and NDP.
Polls are a reflection of public opinion on a particular issue at a specific time. It's about yesterday and the issues of yesterday. Is the niqab still a vote-affecter? Is the latest Harper phone-tip line ? Is the TPP playing well for Harper? Is Mulcair still bleeding in Quebec over the niqab?
What will the turn out be? Will the 18-28 voter turn out or are turned off again? How will voter id affect voting turnout, especially among students, the homeless, the First Nations? In the case of the First Nations, will they turn out and affect the outcome in the 51 ridings in which they can be the difference?
Too many questions that the polls cannot adequately cover.
The past week has seen a rise in Liberal support (34%); a steadying of Conservative support (31% and a decline of NDP (26%) support. Elections in Canada are about the provinces/regions. This is why it is necessary to know how these polls are conducted; where and the sample. Increases in seats in especially Ontario and BC ( also Quebec and Alberta) require redrawing of boundaries and understanding of where the new seats are...urban or suburban or rural. The Conservatives under Harper have done woefully in urban centers like Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver; the have done well in rural/ agricultural centers. The NDP have done well in Quebec and urban areas. Where are the new seats and how many of the rural seats have affected? In the case of the 905 in Greater Toronto, how is the vote breaking? Have the Liberals been able to win back those defected in the last election? Have the NDP been able to make inroads? Is the Conservative holding? How are the Greens doing in BC? Are they drawing support away from the Liberals or NDP? In Alberta is the economy and the recent NDP victory having an impact on Conservative support? We know that the Maritimes ( especially NFL) are going Liberal and NDP.
Polls are a reflection of public opinion on a particular issue at a specific time. It's about yesterday and the issues of yesterday. Is the niqab still a vote-affecter? Is the latest Harper phone-tip line ? Is the TPP playing well for Harper? Is Mulcair still bleeding in Quebec over the niqab?
What will the turn out be? Will the 18-28 voter turn out or are turned off again? How will voter id affect voting turnout, especially among students, the homeless, the First Nations? In the case of the First Nations, will they turn out and affect the outcome in the 51 ridings in which they can be the difference?
Too many questions that the polls cannot adequately cover.
