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Election Canada...... Decision time

10/6/2015

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     Polls are dangerous in a democracy, especially when there are so many being done, releasing "findings", that are contradictory, not knowing whether they are "plants"; how they were conducted and what was the question and the sample. Polls tend to destroy public opinion, even as they sought to decipher what that opinion is. They create band wagon effect, especially amongst the least informed public, who glance at headlines or get snippets of news from their favourite media outlet. 
     The past week has seen a rise in Liberal support (34%); a steadying of Conservative support (31% and a decline of NDP (26%) support. Elections in Canada are about the provinces/regions. This is why it is necessary to know how these polls are conducted; where and the sample. Increases in seats in especially Ontario and BC ( also Quebec and Alberta) require redrawing of boundaries and understanding of where the new seats are...urban or suburban or rural. The Conservatives under Harper have done woefully in urban centers like Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver; the have done well in rural/ agricultural centers. The NDP have done well in Quebec and urban areas. Where are the new seats and how many of the rural seats have affected? In the case of the 905 in Greater Toronto, how is the vote breaking? Have the Liberals been able to win back those defected in the last election? Have the NDP been able to make inroads? Is the Conservative holding? How are the Greens doing in BC? Are they drawing support away from the Liberals or NDP? In Alberta is the economy and the recent NDP victory having an impact on Conservative support? We know that the Maritimes ( especially NFL) are going Liberal and NDP.
     Polls are a reflection of public opinion on a particular issue at a specific time. It's about yesterday and the issues of yesterday. Is the niqab still a vote-affecter? Is the latest Harper phone-tip line  ? Is the TPP playing well for Harper? Is Mulcair still bleeding in Quebec over the niqab?
     What will the turn out be? Will the 18-28 voter turn out or are turned off again? How will voter id affect voting turnout, especially among students, the homeless, the First Nations? In the case of the First Nations, will they turn out and affect the outcome in the 51 ridings in which they can be the difference?  
     Too many questions that the polls cannot adequately cover.
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    fig 2-b My Father and Mother to whom I owe everything

    "Ecce Homo"  ("Behold the Man"), Antonio Ciseri's depiction of Pontius Pilate presenting a scourged Jesus to the people of Jerusalem.

    fig 1-b


    figure 1-a

    F. Goya
    Two men fighting with clubs
    circa 1819-1823

    The Black Paintings Period


    (Fig 2a) The Death of Innocents


    Author

     Ishwar R. Prashad recently retired from over 47 years of teaching.

    He taught Political Science variously at Dawson College, Loyola College, Algoma University College, Sir George Williams University, Concordia University and Vanier College.

    Previously, he taught for nine years in Port Mourant, Guyana.


    He became Principal of Corentyne Comprehensive High School at the tender age of 21. During this time he turned down Scholarship offers to study overseas in England and the U.S.S.R.

    He chose Canada and after graduating from Sir George Williams with a B.A Honours with Distinction, he accepted a Fellowship to complete his graduate work at McMaster University. He completed his first two degrees-Bachelors and Masters- in three years.  

    His last position was as Co-Ordinator of Political Science and Economics at Vanier College and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Concordia University.

    He is married to the former Juliet Ramcharan (Library Supervisor, McGill University) and together they have three children – Indra R. Prashad, P.Eng. ,McGill (Presently Manager, Ontario Safe Water Drinking Agency), Ishwar R. Prashad Jr., B.A ,McGill (Presently, President, Kismit Gear Inc.) and Rabindra Y. Prashad, (Presently, Artist and Chef).They are the proud Grandparents of eight grandchildren-Miranda, Kamal, Ayesha, Élan, Anĵa , Étienne, Chloé, and Jasmine.

     

     

     





     



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