On June 16, Egyptians will once more go to the polls to elect a president. They are caught between the "rock and a hard place", having to chose from Ahmed Shafiq, former prime minister under the ousted Mubarak and a former general, backed by the military and Mohamed Mursi of the the Muslim Brotherhood, who are feared for their extreme Islamic values. It is a return to military rule or Sharia, and in each case it means that the end of the dreams of a liberal democratic Egypt with a constitution with rights and freedoms.
On Thursday June 14, the Supreme Court, ruled that the laws governing the last parliamentary election failed to " observe legal guidelines" and that about one-third of the seats were won illegally. This means that parliament is dissolved and thus Egypt is left with no constitution, no parliament and possibly a president beholden to the military, if Shafiq is elected or a dangerous stalemate if Mursi is elected.
This ruling was a "legal coup", by judges appointed by Mubarak and tied to the military.( The USA had its "legal coup" by the Supreme Court, when it ruled in favour of George W. Bush in 2000, so its reaction was very muted, plus they would prefer the military, which it subsidises, to The Islamist of the Brotherhood). It further ruled that Shafgiq cannot be barred from running for the presidency. A new decree was also issued giving the military the power to arrest civilian protesters. All in all a bad day for the hopes of those who thought that their protests and the ouster of Mubarak had ended six decades of military rule.
On Sunday, June 16, there will be a new president. A win by Shafiq means the continuation of military rule. Ther are many, especially in the business and middle class who want "stabiltiy" and are willing to support Shafiq. There are those, the liberals and the young and educated, the Christians and females, who are afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood and the institution of Sharia, who may stay away or give their support to Shafiq, hoping to work out some deal with the military. And then there are the poor, the rural and the religious, who have benefitted from the work ( food and medical services etc) of the Brotherhood in their neighborhoods and who support Sharia and an Islamic state.
The military, having suppressed the Brotherhood and its Islamic agenda will not permit them to wield power and so if perchance the Brotherhood win, the military (as in Algeria and Burma in early 1990's) will not allow them to hold power (the Supreme Court ruling affected them the most and they lost control of parliament). How will they react? Will they call their people out into the streets for a showdown or will they bide their time as they have done for the past 84 years? Other opposition groups will not support them in the streets even as the Brotherhood, kept a very low profile during the earlier protests.
Will there be blood? Wael Ghonim, the Google executive, whose arrest rallied the protesters has this to say " The only thing that will make us go back to living in fear, oppression and silence is a time machine---they haven't invented that yet".
On Thursday June 14, the Supreme Court, ruled that the laws governing the last parliamentary election failed to " observe legal guidelines" and that about one-third of the seats were won illegally. This means that parliament is dissolved and thus Egypt is left with no constitution, no parliament and possibly a president beholden to the military, if Shafiq is elected or a dangerous stalemate if Mursi is elected.
This ruling was a "legal coup", by judges appointed by Mubarak and tied to the military.( The USA had its "legal coup" by the Supreme Court, when it ruled in favour of George W. Bush in 2000, so its reaction was very muted, plus they would prefer the military, which it subsidises, to The Islamist of the Brotherhood). It further ruled that Shafgiq cannot be barred from running for the presidency. A new decree was also issued giving the military the power to arrest civilian protesters. All in all a bad day for the hopes of those who thought that their protests and the ouster of Mubarak had ended six decades of military rule.
On Sunday, June 16, there will be a new president. A win by Shafiq means the continuation of military rule. Ther are many, especially in the business and middle class who want "stabiltiy" and are willing to support Shafiq. There are those, the liberals and the young and educated, the Christians and females, who are afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood and the institution of Sharia, who may stay away or give their support to Shafiq, hoping to work out some deal with the military. And then there are the poor, the rural and the religious, who have benefitted from the work ( food and medical services etc) of the Brotherhood in their neighborhoods and who support Sharia and an Islamic state.
The military, having suppressed the Brotherhood and its Islamic agenda will not permit them to wield power and so if perchance the Brotherhood win, the military (as in Algeria and Burma in early 1990's) will not allow them to hold power (the Supreme Court ruling affected them the most and they lost control of parliament). How will they react? Will they call their people out into the streets for a showdown or will they bide their time as they have done for the past 84 years? Other opposition groups will not support them in the streets even as the Brotherhood, kept a very low profile during the earlier protests.
Will there be blood? Wael Ghonim, the Google executive, whose arrest rallied the protesters has this to say " The only thing that will make us go back to living in fear, oppression and silence is a time machine---they haven't invented that yet".
