Hosni Mubarak has been convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment for crimes against the "revolutionariesof Tarhir of Square" and not for the thirty years of brutal and autocratic rule.
He came tp power after the assassination of Anwar Sadat and used that as a pretext for his iron grip on power and for the repression of those, especially the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood, who were treated as enemies of the state, outlawed, hunted down, killed and imprisoned. Many in the country supported his rule and they saw the lack of liberty as the price for stability. Of course, he had the support and billions in military aid from the USA, for being a very loyal ally. How bitter he must have been when, in his time of need, the USA, turned away and abondoned him.
Many of the people, especially the business and middle class and the older voters continue to support him and showed this by voting for an ex air force chiel (like Mubarak had been under Sadat) and the last premier under Mubarak, Ahmed Shafiq. They rejected the Brotherhood (their leader, Mohamed Mursi will be in the secind round) and the liberal, moderate candidates like Moussa ( 12 candidates ran and the vote was split in such a way that only the Brotherhood and the "Old Guard" were able to fully organise and benefit). Now what?
On june 16/17, either the Brotherhood or the pro-Mubarak military will win the presidency. If the Brotherhood wins, don't expect the military to fade away. They will be even more prominent. They will be the power broker between the Brotherhood and those opposed to them in the 82 million. They will want to ensure that foreign policy is in their control, and that the peace treaty with Israel is upheld/respected, for the simple reason that it brings in $1.3 billion in US military aid. Internally, if the Brotherhood wins, Sharia will be introduced (this was the pledge of the Brotherhood. They may wear siuits but that's just for the western eyes, but no one is fooled. They have waited for 84 years) and that will mean curbs on social freedoms and an end to liberal hopes.
There will be an uneasy period, with the "opposition" wanting to see where and what the Brotherhood is going/doing and then there will be the real revolution. In all revolutions, there is a period of struggle for power. In Egypt's revolution, the "revolutionaries" had no identifiable leaders around whom the people could coalesce. It was more like the French Revolution not the Russian or Chinese Revolutions where the leader/s was clear.
In the Ruissian Revolution there was a struggle between the radical Bolsheviks led by Lenin and the moderate Mensheviks led by Kerensky, with Lenin and the Bolsheviks winning (later between Stalin and Trotsky, which Stalin won). In China Mao would use the Cultural Revolution to "cleanse" the system and strengthen his rule. In the French revolution there was chaos and Madame Guillotine reigned supreme, until Napolean seized power and ruled France with the military.
The youths of Tarhrir Square must decide whether they are willing to go yhe extra steps. Have they learnt from their first efforts?What? Are they willing to make the hard choices? To spill theirs and others blood? and to do it over a sustained period? Those are the questions and there are no half-measures. Otherwise they shoud go back to their text-messaging, their games, their facebook and twitter etc.
Revolution is a serious , bloody business. "Force is the mid-wife of every old society, pregnant with a new one"...Karl Marx.
He came tp power after the assassination of Anwar Sadat and used that as a pretext for his iron grip on power and for the repression of those, especially the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood, who were treated as enemies of the state, outlawed, hunted down, killed and imprisoned. Many in the country supported his rule and they saw the lack of liberty as the price for stability. Of course, he had the support and billions in military aid from the USA, for being a very loyal ally. How bitter he must have been when, in his time of need, the USA, turned away and abondoned him.
Many of the people, especially the business and middle class and the older voters continue to support him and showed this by voting for an ex air force chiel (like Mubarak had been under Sadat) and the last premier under Mubarak, Ahmed Shafiq. They rejected the Brotherhood (their leader, Mohamed Mursi will be in the secind round) and the liberal, moderate candidates like Moussa ( 12 candidates ran and the vote was split in such a way that only the Brotherhood and the "Old Guard" were able to fully organise and benefit). Now what?
On june 16/17, either the Brotherhood or the pro-Mubarak military will win the presidency. If the Brotherhood wins, don't expect the military to fade away. They will be even more prominent. They will be the power broker between the Brotherhood and those opposed to them in the 82 million. They will want to ensure that foreign policy is in their control, and that the peace treaty with Israel is upheld/respected, for the simple reason that it brings in $1.3 billion in US military aid. Internally, if the Brotherhood wins, Sharia will be introduced (this was the pledge of the Brotherhood. They may wear siuits but that's just for the western eyes, but no one is fooled. They have waited for 84 years) and that will mean curbs on social freedoms and an end to liberal hopes.
There will be an uneasy period, with the "opposition" wanting to see where and what the Brotherhood is going/doing and then there will be the real revolution. In all revolutions, there is a period of struggle for power. In Egypt's revolution, the "revolutionaries" had no identifiable leaders around whom the people could coalesce. It was more like the French Revolution not the Russian or Chinese Revolutions where the leader/s was clear.
In the Ruissian Revolution there was a struggle between the radical Bolsheviks led by Lenin and the moderate Mensheviks led by Kerensky, with Lenin and the Bolsheviks winning (later between Stalin and Trotsky, which Stalin won). In China Mao would use the Cultural Revolution to "cleanse" the system and strengthen his rule. In the French revolution there was chaos and Madame Guillotine reigned supreme, until Napolean seized power and ruled France with the military.
The youths of Tarhrir Square must decide whether they are willing to go yhe extra steps. Have they learnt from their first efforts?What? Are they willing to make the hard choices? To spill theirs and others blood? and to do it over a sustained period? Those are the questions and there are no half-measures. Otherwise they shoud go back to their text-messaging, their games, their facebook and twitter etc.
Revolution is a serious , bloody business. "Force is the mid-wife of every old society, pregnant with a new one"...Karl Marx.
