Casualties of War......Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan

      50,000 civilians are trapped and possibly being used as human shields in an ever shrinking and very bloody battle zone of about 5 square kilometres of beachfront, lagoons and coconut groves. The government forces are accused of using heavy artillery barrages, that have resulted in many casualties. The die-hard remnants Tamil Tigers are running out of time and place and it is only a matter of days berfore they are completely routed. The government has denied using air strikes and heavy bombardment in the crowded war zone, but because independent journalists has been kept out, this cannot be verified. What will be the result of the Tiger's military defeat? Will they resort to suicide bombers and bring the war to populated areas? Their history and manic leadership would seem to indicate that they will not go quietly. The government must step in immediately and try and win over the Tamil population with real changes to address their concerns about their language, religion and culture and the discrimination that they have suffered at the hands of the majority Sinhalese, Buddhist majority. This is no time for victory celebration and/ or gloating. This is the time for reconcilation and healing.

      Meantime in Pakistan, the military has decided to take the fight to the Taliban and its allies in the Swat Valley.This military offensive, 130 kilometres north-west of the capital of Islamabad is a test of the government's committment to face up to the challenge from the growing Taliban insurgency. The government had been accused by the U.S. of " abdication", after it had signed an agreement with the Taliban in the area. The resulting fighting has caused the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians. fleeing from the fighting. According to military spohesman Major- General Athar Abbas, "The militants are on the run". This latest offensive was launched during the visit of President Ali Zardari to Washington. The Obama administration has been very nervous about the possible collapse of his government and the threat of their nuclear arsenal falling into wrong hands.

      This is a very serious situation that Pakistan finds itself in. Having helped in the creation of the Taliban, it now finds itself fighting it. The Talioban are entirely Pashtun and the Pakistani military is made up mostly of Punjabis. Over the centuries the Pashtuns living in the mountainous borderlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan have fought to keep out the invading Punjabis from the plains. There are about 40 million Pashtuns in this area and they would dearly like to establish an independent,ethnic Pashtunistan. Thus sending a Punjabi dominated a army into this area can be seen as an invasion by an historic enemy and will exacerbate tensions between these two ethnic groups. The displacement of the Pashtuns from this area, not only create a refugee problem, but a serious instability in the whole of Pakistan and in Afghanistan. A military solution is never going to solve the problems of poverty and resentment or of religious and ethnic tensions. Pakistan is on the brink of dismemberment and the military cannot by itself stop this. Civilian and religious leaderships must come together and resolve the outstanding problems .....poverty, illiteracy, corruption, discrimination and a history of suspicion and enmity.

      The area straddling the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, have been controlled by the Pashtuns who were pushed out by the British 1847 who drew the boundary line between the two countries. The Durand line as it is cllled has been disputed by Afghanistan and this was more so after Pakistan was created by the British in 1947 and the Punjabi- dominated government of Pakistan was given this area. Of course the Pashtun dominated governments of Afghanistan have challenged the right of Pakistan to rule over these Pashtun areas. The Pashtuns are very independent and are wary of too much control either by Pakistan or Afghanistan. Now with this Pakistani military action, and the change of strategy by the U.S. in Afghanistan, more instability and violence will be follow. This will jeopardise both the government of Pakistan and Afghanistan, which are already severely weakened. They will be seen as the puppets of the United States and will encourage the Pashtuns to unite with their al Qaeda and other allies. You can expect a very bloody and long campaign.