On a visit to Sochi on Tuesday, Bashar al Assad gave Vladimir Putin a huge hug Assad, who Also placed his head on Putin's shoulder and thanking him for Russia's "sacrifices" and for " saving our country". He should also thank Putin for saving him, as he was on the verge of losing control and power as rebel forces, al Nusra and the Islamic state of Syria rolled up large swaths of territory. Before the Russian intervention, Assad controlled only about 19% of Syria.
The Russians went in massively, with army, navy and air force and with fighter from Iran and Hezbollah, turned the fortunes of Assad winning back about 50% of the territory, leaving the rebels in shambles and forcing the Americans to concede that Assad is there to stay, as long as Putin supports him. Assad's troops, with Russian help now also controls the four largest cities and 10 of 14 provincial capitals and its Mediterranean coast.
Russia now dominates the negotiating process ( Putin realizes that there is no military solution to end the conflict . So an eight round of U N sponsored talks are to be held in Geneva. One item not on the table is the removal of Assad ( the U S and its allies have backed off this demand, some time ago), and even elections are not on the table at this time, though Russia can change its mind and can hold some kind of election, that ensures that Assad stays in power.
The opposition is in disarray and their chief negotiator has resigned, complaining that foreign powers are carving up Syria and "brokering side deals to prolong the life of Bashar Assad's regime ( welcome to " big nation's interests a la 1920s when the Mid-East was carved up). Together with the U S ( Rex Tillerson, U S Sect. of State had boasted back in October that " the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end"), the Saudis ( who backed the Sunni rebels) are also big losers. Iran ( increase presence and stature) and Hezbollah ( Assad owes them and so do the Shia/Alewites) have emerged as winners.
The biggest winner is undoubtedly Putin and Russia. They will have a strong presence in the Middle East with an airbase, a warm water port and military bases, which will allow them to be an important player again ( they had lost this during the 20 years, with the collapse of the USSR and the rule of Yeltsin). Putin gambled and won, a harbinger of what will happen in the Ukraine and Crimea. Russia's prestige ( lost after the collapse of USSR and Yeltsin's rule) has been restored while America's is frittered away while Trump tweets. Is Latvia next?
The Russians went in massively, with army, navy and air force and with fighter from Iran and Hezbollah, turned the fortunes of Assad winning back about 50% of the territory, leaving the rebels in shambles and forcing the Americans to concede that Assad is there to stay, as long as Putin supports him. Assad's troops, with Russian help now also controls the four largest cities and 10 of 14 provincial capitals and its Mediterranean coast.
Russia now dominates the negotiating process ( Putin realizes that there is no military solution to end the conflict . So an eight round of U N sponsored talks are to be held in Geneva. One item not on the table is the removal of Assad ( the U S and its allies have backed off this demand, some time ago), and even elections are not on the table at this time, though Russia can change its mind and can hold some kind of election, that ensures that Assad stays in power.
The opposition is in disarray and their chief negotiator has resigned, complaining that foreign powers are carving up Syria and "brokering side deals to prolong the life of Bashar Assad's regime ( welcome to " big nation's interests a la 1920s when the Mid-East was carved up). Together with the U S ( Rex Tillerson, U S Sect. of State had boasted back in October that " the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end"), the Saudis ( who backed the Sunni rebels) are also big losers. Iran ( increase presence and stature) and Hezbollah ( Assad owes them and so do the Shia/Alewites) have emerged as winners.
The biggest winner is undoubtedly Putin and Russia. They will have a strong presence in the Middle East with an airbase, a warm water port and military bases, which will allow them to be an important player again ( they had lost this during the 20 years, with the collapse of the USSR and the rule of Yeltsin). Putin gambled and won, a harbinger of what will happen in the Ukraine and Crimea. Russia's prestige ( lost after the collapse of USSR and Yeltsin's rule) has been restored while America's is frittered away while Trump tweets. Is Latvia next?
