The shooting down of the Russian fighter-jet by Turkey, has serious implications. It will be a decision that Turkey will rue. The autocratic egomaniac, Erdogan,in his billion dollar palace, may be relishing his action but it is the Turkish people who will pay the price for his "moment of glory". Putin, the former KGB colonel, will take action, but he will bide his time, as he receives the French President Hollande.
     The Russians will first respond economically, halting the "Turkish Stream" pipeline and the  $10 billion Gazprom investment to build it to bring Black Sea oil to Europe, as well as the Ahkuyu nuclear plant. Then it will ramp up the support for Assad (Erdogan wants him out and so did the Americans and Brits); increase the bombing of the so-called moderate Syrian rebels, especially the Turkomen, along the Turkish border and send arms to the Kurds ( this latter will be the one that Turkey will be most concerned about).
     The lines are now clearly drawn. Russia and the Shia forces of Assad, Iraq and Hizbollah on one side and Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Turkey on the other side, with the Americans, French and Brits in the middle. The Kurds ( who used to say that "only the mountains are our friends"), are the big winner as their beloved Kurdistan,  becomes more and more a reality. The big loser will be Turkey ( NATO will not be drawn into a war on its behalf against Russia. It would be suicidal and Russia is more and more becoming the one that calls the shot in the fight against ISIL).
    Iraq was created out of the remains of the Ottoman Empire, by the British and the French, carving out "colonies" for themselves in the area. The forced union of the Kurdish north with the Sunni centre and the Shia South, is no more. There is no going back. The Kurds will have their country. The Sunnis of Iraq and Syria may form their own country and the Shias will do the same or join in a federation with Iran. 
     Iran will emerge stronger, especially after the economic sanctions are lifted and will be the main influence in the region. Saudi Arabia will become the mischief-maker, doing all it can, to spread its Wahabbist version of Islam and may well form an even closer relationship with ISIL, al Nusra and Sunnis of Syria, as Syria will be divided between the Kurds (joining their brethren in Iraq and Turkey...which Turkey will try to stop but will fail), the Alewites/Shias supporting Assad and the Sunnis. 
     The map of this area will be redrawn and what will emerge will be a more realistic ( geographic, religious and cultural) stable region ( not immediately, for battles will be fought).
     The West, specifically  USA, will huff and puff, but will accept this outcome. Russia will play a larger role and its presence will be entrenched.      

     The attack has stirred the French to action. The President, Hollande has called a special session of the Senate and the National Assembly ( only the third time since 1848); invoked Sec16, emergency powers; is adding 5,000 more to the security forces; extending the emergency for three months; is sending the aircraft carrier de Gaulle to the region, tripling its air strike ability and called for a coalition with USA and Russia ( this is rare for France since the 1960's has preferred to act alone).
     Russia has increased its bombing of ISIL sites and so has the USA. Obama and Putin held a tete-a tete at the G-20 meeting and there seems to be a consensus to involve Iran more. This is overdue as Shia Iran is in a for the  long haul in the fight against the Sunni ISIL and al Qaeda, both for its own protection/security and those of the Shias of Iraq and Syria. This means that there will be less attention paid to the removal of Assad and more focus on fighting the common enemy ISIL.
     Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which have wanted to bring down Assad and ( in the case of Turkey weaken the Kurds), will now see their objective give way to the fight against ISIL. This means a greater role for Iran and the Shia regimes in Iraq Syria as well as the Kurds, who will be need to supply the troops on ground, while the Americans, the Russians and the French bomb from the air. This is a potent combination and it limits the need for Western/ American/ French " boots on the ground", and this will suit Obama, even as the right-wing hawks in the USA are calling for troops to be sent.
     ISIL may have hoped for a robust Western response but not this. They were hoping that public sentiment would force Obama to commit ground forces, but Obama has held steady. Instead what ISIL will face is a ferocious bombing as well as a better armed and focused ground campaign by the Iranians, the Kurds, the Syrians and the Iraqis.
     ISIL has sown the wind and will reap the whirlwind
     Nov. 18, update........France has invoked the never-used Article 42.7 " mutual defence clause" that states that if a member country " is the victim of armed aggression on its territory" other members have " an obligation of aid and assistance by all means in their power". France has said that they can help " either by taking part in France's operations in Syria and Iraq or by easing the load or providing support in other operations".... Northern Africa, Central African Republic, Lebanon. France can also invoke Article 5 of the NATO agreement 

     The military will decide what the lives of the 52 million people will be after today's election. They will select 25% of the members of the new legislature ( based on the power given to them by the Constitutio0n they wrote, when they changed to civilian clothes in 2011, but retained power), plus the amount they get elected. The United Solidarity and Development Party led by Pres. Thein Sein is on record as saying that they will respect the outcome. Time will tell, whether the 1990 military coup, that ended the victory of the democratic forces and re-established military rule, will be repeated, if Aung San Suu Kyi and her pro-democracy party win.
     There will be hundreds of foreign observers, but the military that have been in control since 1962, may not be willing to give up power. Even so, the pro-democracy needs to win 67% of the contested seats to win ( given that, as noted above, the military will chose 25% of the members of the legislature). There are also numerous ethnic parties, among them the Karens, the Kachins and the Shans, which make up about 40% of the population. The Muslim/ Rohingas are not allowed to  vote and only 8 of the 20  armed groups have signed the ceasefire ( previous ceasefires in the 80s and 90s were broken).Yet he  ethnic minorities are hopeful, that the outcome will lead to peace and stability.
     Burma/Myanmar became independent from Britain, in 1948, after a very bloody insurrection. One of the leaders of the independence movement was Gen. Aung San, father of Suu Kyi ( he had helped the Brits defeat the Japanese forces that ad occupied Burma during the second world war, for its resources, especially rubber). The Constitution promised some self-government to the ethnic minorities, but these promises were broken by the military takeover in 1962 and the dictatorship has ruled the country with savagery, since then ( as noted above they changed into civilian clothing in 2011, but kept the power, building a brand new metropolis for themselves and their families and friends). The ethnic minorities, especially the Karens, the Kachins and Shahs, opposed the military rule and revolted and there was widespread violence, repression and destruction. This election is meant to end this.
     Myanmar has an abundance of resources, minerals, forestry etc. and the  world is eager to trade and invest, but have held back because of the continued fighting. The results today and the response of the military and their "civilian" backers, especially the majority Buddhists, will be watched closely. 
     Suu Kyi and her coalition has won the election with about 71% of the votes. She cannot be president but she has stated that she "will be over the president" . This is troubling. I hope she resists the "urge" and instead focus on the minorities and especially the treatment of the Rohingas. So far, the military and the militant "buddhists" monks who support them have been quiet. Let's hope they respect the result.         
    

     The cabinet of 30 ministers is federalised and Canadianised. It is multicultural, multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-linguistic. It is a cabinet for 2015, in a Canada that is more and more diverse. No more domination by male Europeans, English and French with a sprinkle of Jews, Italians, Ukrainians, Germans ands a few women. Now it is 50% women in important portfolios, and representation by "new" ethnic groups, young and highly qualified.
     Every province and the North are represented. 12 from Ontario, including the minister of finance, international trade, immigration, environment and aboriginal affairs; 6 plus the PM, from Quebec, including the ministers of external affairs, and transport; 3 from BC including the ministers of justice and defence; 2 from Alberta; 1 from Saskatchewan( the "old war-horse" Goodale; 2 from Manitoba; 1 each from Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Nunavut. Natural resources to Manitoba, Treasury Board to Nova Scotia, Fisheries to Nunavut, Public Service and Procurement to NFL, Veterans Affairs to Alberta. and Public Safety to Saskatchewan. 
     In 1968, a ministry of Multiculturalism was created by Pierre Trudeau and in 1982, Sec 27, stated that the Charter must  interpreted " in a manner consistent with the preservation and enhancement of the multicultural heritage of Canada". This Cabinet of 2015 has gone a far way towards that with English, French, joined by the "new ethnics". The Minister of Defence is Sikh/ Punjabi/ Indian, Harjit Singh ( a highly decorated military man); the Minister of Justice is First Nation &woman, Jody Wilson- Raybould; the Minister of Democratic Institutions is an Afghani & woman, Maryam Monsee; the Minister of Fisheries is Inuit, Hunter Tootoo. A paraplegic, Kent Hehr is minister of Veterans Affairs; the minister of Sports, is Carla Qualtrough, visually impaired; the minister of the Treasury Board, Scott Brison is gay etc.. There are Protestants, Catholics, Hindu, Sikhs, Jews etc. and they come from urban, rural, large metropolis and far away towns, from coast to coast to coast.
     Parliament will convene on Dec. 3rd and the Speech from the Throne will be read by the Governor-General on Dec. 4th. outlining the general direction of the government. Already the Minister of Finance is preparing to announce middle-class tax-cuts and the tax increase for "the top 1%. The Public Safety minister and the Minister of Immigration and Refugees are making plans for the promised 25,000 refugees and the Minister of Environment is preparing for the climate talks in Paris. They have a full plate and many of them are not just rookie ministers but rookie members  of Parliament and as such have a lot of work to do.
     There is  a new mood in the nation. It is hopeful and happy. A cloud has been lifted after the years of division, secrecy and virulence. Already, the new PM and his ministers have met with the media, giving interviews, answering questions. 3,500+people made their way to Rideau Hall to watch the swearing in. Afterwards Trudeau waded in into the crowd hugging and shaking hands, taking out "selfies". 
     The expectations are very high. The Cabinet ministers are Eager Beavers. Let's see if and what they Build.            

     Justin Trudeau, Canada's prime minister-in waiting has promised to change Canada's electoral system to better reflect the voting. The present system of " first-past the post" based on candidates being elected on a plurality of votes has rewarded the major parties and punished the minor parties, stifling their growth, turning off voters and elected governments with a majority of seats but only a minority of support ( as on 0ct. 19, when the Liberals got 184 seats, a clear majority but only about 39% of the votes. The last time a party received more than 50% of the votes was 1984). First past the post created a two-party system and established stable strong government with clear, consistent policies but with a strong opposition waiting to take over, if it stumbles. However with changes in demography and with population diversity, the call has gone out for electoral reform to better reflect the population and it choices.
     New ZEALAND uses a Mixed Member Proportional system(MMP), where voters have two votes ( they held a referendum in 1993 to bring this about). The first vote  is for a constituency representative, chosen by plurality (most votes) and the second is for a party list ( there is a 5% threshold).
     Australia uses a preferential system, where voters mark their preference as 1,2,3,4, etc. Anyone with a majority is elected. If no one gets a majority, the candidate with the least  vote is dropped and his second preference is distributed to the others and this continues until a majority is obtained. The Australian Senate, uses it too for the multi-member constituency...each state has 12 seats. Voting is compulsory ( fines up to $170)
     France uses a two-ballot system ( ballotage). If no candidate wins a majority, there is a run-off between the two top candidates, a week later.
     Germany uses a Mixed Member Proportional system, but in this case, 299 embers of the Bundestag are elected from constituencies, by plurality and 299 are chose from a party list, based on the percentage of votes received. There is a 5% threshold.
     Each of these systems better reflect the voters' choice and the government that is formed is based on a majority of support and thus have more credibility and legitimacy. They also ensure a better representation of the cleavages....ethnic, religious, regional, gender etc. in society.  
     In the Throne Speech, Dec3, the Liberals signalled that electoral reform is on. It will be led by a inexperienced Minister and first-time member of Parliament ( formerly from Afghanistan). I seriously doubt that she has the skills, the knowledge or the political- know how, to navigate the treacherous legislative channel or even to get the Cabinet to consider it to be vital. Of course she may be supported by the PM and that will get her the attention needed in Cabinet but that still leaves the Opposition in the Parliament. Yesterday, 8th Dec. all she did was smile when questioned. That will not cut it.