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 Duffy Connundrum

8/25/2015

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     Running around like headless chickens, inept and incompetent, the Harper PMO and the Senate leadership tried to cover-up, the Wright check; whitewash the Senate report and tamper with the Deloitte audit. They have turned a simple act into a political and criminal fiasco, which have dogged Harper ( the one they were trying to protect) on the campaign trail and raising all manner of questions. What did Harper know? When did he know? What did Novak, present chief of staff an closest confidante, know? Is he believable when he said he was not there in the room with Perrin and Wright/ that he does not remember, if he was there/ that he did not tell Harper? What did Perrin tell Harper about Duffy's residency qualification to represent PEI in the Senate? Why did Harper not accept Perrin's advise? Did Wright tell Harper about the check and what does " good to go " mean in the context of Harper's approval? What did Woodcock, director of issues, know? Why did they try to whitewash the Senate report? Why did Gerstein try to tamper with and influence the Deloitte audit?
     So many questions including, why was  Duffy charged for taking a bribe and Wright who gave him the money not charged?
     Much more to be clarified.   
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 The Nuclear Agreement with Iran.

8/11/2015

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     The agreement which was negotiated between US, Germany, France, UK, China, Russia and the EU with Iran, is the best deal that could be had. Those like the Republicans ( their leaders in Congress and the presidential candidates), Netanyahu of Israel, supported by the lobby group AIPAC, the extremists in Iran ( whom Pres. Obama rightly points out shout "Death to America", as well as Sen. Schumer ( who wants to be the next Senate leader for the Democrats), say Iran cannot be trusted, but they offer nothing, no alternative but war. Schumer caved in to his financial backers in AIPAC and to his puppet-master Netanyahu, and the Republican leaders in Congress as well as the Republican presidential candidates , will oppose anything that Pres. Obama proposes.
     The Grand Ayatollah Khamenei has signalled his support and there was celebration in the streets as thousands honk horns and screamed in relief...most Iranians are young, quite enamoured with things Western/ American and were born after the 1979 Revolution and they were the ones who voted for the moderate Pres. Rouhani. They want peace and they want to travel. They have suffered under the sanctions and they want it to end.
     It was the sanctions that forced Iran to the table. That is because it was universally supported. Iran may have pursued the building of nuclear weapons but after the search for WMD  and the subsequent war on and defeat and death of Saddam, they were became very concerned lest they be the next target and so limited their programme and allowed for inspection.
     The terms agreed upon will see a severe limit on what Iran can do. There is a 10-15 years reduction of the amount of uranium produced and have in hand; there is a reduction of 2/3 of its 2,700 uranium-refining centrifuges; tough international monitoring, with IAEA, able to inspect suspicious sites....intense scrutiny and verification, so that it may well be impossible for Iran to secretly get a nuclear weapon.
     Netanyahu's contention that Iran cannot be trusted and that they will continue to develop and build is pure sabre-rattling and has little or no credibility, but he says this to rally his neo-conservative friends in America and his hardliners at home. The idea that Iran will launch an attack on Israel is laughable, as Iran would face obliteration from Israel's arsenal of nuclear weapons. 
     If the Congress succeed in stopping the agreement ( they will face a veto and the over-ride requiring 2/3 of the Senate is not likely), here is what will happen. Russia and China will no longer support the UN sanctions. Not even France, the UK, the EU or Germany will support it. So Iran will be able to sell its oil and will be able to trade with the world, except US and Israel, and there will a rush to get the weapons to defend itself in case of an attack by Israel ( which Obama will not support). There 80 millions Iranians waiting to buy all manner of products which the world is ready to sell.
     Deals that could have been worked out to fight ISIL; to end the civil war in Syria and Yemen; to apply pressure to Hizbollah, the Taliban and the Houthis will not be made. The region will be further locked in instability and wars, secular, regional and religious  
     Diplomacy and multilateralism will have failed and the drums of war will be everywhere. The world would be a far worse place without the agreement.. 
   
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Longest Costliest Election in Canada, since 1872.

8/3/2015

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     The  Governor-General has been visited and election call has been made. It has been done to take advantage of the large "war chest" that the Reform/Conservatives have...to stretch it out and outspend and put pressure on the other parties. That is, if the other parties fall in the trap, which I am certain they will not.
     Canada's first election campaign lasted 81 days in 1867 and the one in 1872, 96 days. These were held in the days when transportation was limited( the new railway, horseback and wagons), and thus acceptable. In 1926 the campaign was 74 days ( this was a very controversial election, forced by the defeat of the King government, the disagreement between Prime Minister King and GG Byng and scandal). This election, which will be held on Oct.19, 2015, will see a 78 days campaign which cost tens of millions more ( some estimate between $150- $200 million more). 
     Elections Canada had estimated that a 37-day campaign would cost around $375 million. This campaign is twice as long and so rental of office, payment to workers, payments to political parties for additional expenses etc. will add millions more and the taxpayers will have to shoulder the burden. The powers of Elections Canada have been limited by recently passed laws and some voters, thousands, ( chiefly the elderly, the young and First Nations, more likely to vote for Liberals and NDP and not Ref/Cons) may be prevented from voting, because of the new ID requirement. Elections Canada will be limited in sending voter information and investigating electoral fraud also. This was all done to enhance Harper's chances of being re-elected, a setback for Canadian democracy.
     Harper is expected to run a very scripted campaign, where media access /scrutiny will be limited and attendance will be tightly controlled by vetting ( as happened in the Mount Royal launching, where security was very tight and those who attended were vetted vin advance). This is to make sure that Harper does not face hostile crowds, answer probing questions but face friendly audiences, selected by his handlers. That is why, for instance, he has refused to attend the debate set up by the "consortium"...CBC, CTV etc. He wants to control the news emanating from his campaign, but this will backfire as the media will have a field day with their own analyses, reports and campaign gossips and leaks.
     Harper wants this campaign not to focus on scandals associated with his office (PMO), his various appointees, like Duffy and others and the upcoming trials, on del Mastro a former spokesman who is in prison on electoral fraud, on Wright and the $90,000 cheque to Duffy; or on the crumbling economy and looming recession, unemployment, trade deficit ( he was hoping to announce a signed TPP), slow economic growth, environmental policies/ climate change, missing First Nations women and the Truth and Reconciliation report and recent laws, like C-51. He wants to focus instead on "risks" and "security" and personal attacks on Trudeau ( which succeeded in the last two Liberal leaders) on grounds of incompetence and inexperience. He will go after Mulcair as a "tax and spend" socialist. The attacks will be vicious. personal and culled from half-truths and innuendos.
     Mulcair, who is leading in the polls, will emphasise the need for "change", child care, on the poor performance on the economy and environment, on the various laws limiting democracy on Senate reform if not abolishment and foreign policy. Trudeau will talk about the "middle class'',  taxing, the wealthy  and on his "vision" of Canada. More specific details will be made as the campaign rolls on. 
     The real campaign will start after Labour Day. In the meantime, parties will try to stake their grounds, tests what issues will play well, do polling, targeting specific groups and focusing on areas of strength.
     There are 338 seats, with Ontario (15), Alberta(6) and B.C.(6), Quebec (3) adding seats and so the campaigns will be centered in these places. In Ontario, the Greater Toronto area (905), will be very important. The NDP victory in the recent Alberta election may make the NDP more acceptable and remove some of the concerns ( if Conservative Alberta can vote NDP, why not give them a try). There will e a three-way fight in BC, which has a Liberal provincial government. There are 51 seats, where the First Nations vote can make a difference and if they show up to vote, it will mean trouble for Harper. The 1 million or so Ukrainians, especially in the West were strongly courted by Harper as well as the Jewish vote, in certain ridings like Mount Royal ( which used to be solidly Liberal). The Ref/Con hold 159 seats, the NDP 95; the Liberals 36; the Green 2; the Bloc 2; Force et Democratie 2, Independent 8; vacant 4. 170 is needed for majority.
     All in all, it will be interesting to watch as the campaigns unfold. Expect to be suffocated by polls and expect the campaign, especially by the Ref/Cons to be particularly vicious and poisonous as they will try to run away from their record and instead make a "personality" issue.       
   
    
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    fig 2-b My Father and Mother to whom I owe everything

    "Ecce Homo"  ("Behold the Man"), Antonio Ciseri's depiction of Pontius Pilate presenting a scourged Jesus to the people of Jerusalem.

    fig 1-b


    figure 1-a

    F. Goya
    Two men fighting with clubs
    circa 1819-1823

    The Black Paintings Period


    (Fig 2a) The Death of Innocents


    Author

     Ishwar R. Prashad recently retired from over 47 years of teaching.

    He taught Political Science variously at Dawson College, Loyola College, Algoma University College, Sir George Williams University, Concordia University and Vanier College.

    Previously, he taught for nine years in Port Mourant, Guyana.


    He became Principal of Corentyne Comprehensive High School at the tender age of 21. During this time he turned down Scholarship offers to study overseas in England and the U.S.S.R.

    He chose Canada and after graduating from Sir George Williams with a B.A Honours with Distinction, he accepted a Fellowship to complete his graduate work at McMaster University. He completed his first two degrees-Bachelors and Masters- in three years.  

    His last position was as Co-Ordinator of Political Science and Economics at Vanier College and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Concordia University.

    He is married to the former Juliet Ramcharan (Library Supervisor, McGill University) and together they have three children – Indra R. Prashad, P.Eng. ,McGill (Presently Manager, Ontario Safe Water Drinking Agency), Ishwar R. Prashad Jr., B.A ,McGill (Presently, President, Kismit Gear Inc.) and Rabindra Y. Prashad, (Presently, Artist and Chef).They are the proud Grandparents of eight grandchildren-Miranda, Kamal, Ayesha, Élan, Anĵa , Étienne, Chloé, and Jasmine.

     

     

     





     



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