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Trump, Saudi Arabia and Qatar

6/25/2017

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     The Saudis, joined by Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE, have severed diplomatic ties with Qatar and cut off all land, sea and air links, seeking to isolate the tiny country, However, the two other member of the Gulf Co-operation Council, Kuwait and Oman have refused to go along, causing a split in the and threatening the stability in this very unstable region. Why?
     Trump tweeted afterwards that " during my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar- Look" ( June 6). Of course the Saudis pointed elsewhere when they are the ones who have been spending billions (recently gave $1 billion to Bangladesh to build 560 mosques.. a country that has recently been seething with terrorism, where extremists have been attacking minorities, journalists and anyone seen as enemy of Islam, demanding Sharia and laws on blasphemy and whose PM has been cultivating them in the run up to elections, rejecting the principle of secularism that was one of the founding basis of its Constitution, drafted by her father Sheik Mujib) .. The Saudis have been spreading its very strict interpretation of Islam.. Wahabbism, through its schools/madrassahs and mosques in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia etc. and many wealthy Saudis have been accused of funding terrorists groups ( bin Ladin was Saudi and 15 of the 19 attackers of 9/11 were Saudis ). 
     Trump was conned and used by the Saudis to go after Qatar which has been developing a closer relation with Iran ( gas field exploration... Qatar is the world largest producer of liquefied natural gas), and Turkey ( air base). The Saudis, which has a stranglehold on its media, controlling all information, is angry with Qatar over Al Jazeera and wants it muzzled. Also it accuses Qatar of funding the Muslim Brotherhood, the most popular face of political Islam ( the Egyptian strongman al-Sisi is particularly afraid of this Sunni group ( after he met and was embraced and praised by Trump , al-Sisi, arrested a potential opponent for allegedly making an   indecent hand gesture at a rally five months earlier and he has blocked access to the websites of Mada Masr, Egypt's leading liberal newspaper and websites of 20 other media outlets, including Al Jazeera and Huffpost Arabic ( Economist, June 10-16) and so is Bahrain( authorities killed 5 people and arrested 286 more in a raid on the home of a Shia cleric)  , thus their support of the Saudis.
     The autocrats, religious, military and political have read Trump as being sympathetic and supportive ( Duterte of the Philippines has gone on a rampage) and think that they can persecute "enemies" without hindrance from the USA. However there are other implications. By his words and actions, Trump has unleashed instability in the Middle East and in Europe . His support of the action against Qatar has unsettled the region ( the Americans have one of their largest military bases their, with over 15, 000 military personnel  and tons of equipment . Was he aware of this?). He has also unsettled NATO and Europe, refusing to commit to Article 5, to come to the aid of member nation and by his public scolding of members. He has also shown that it can abandon its allies ( Qatar ) and this affect America's credibility.
     Leadership is sorely lacking and even the 15,00 camels of Qatar have been deported.   
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British Election, June 8.The Conservatives are reduced to a Minority as Labour capitalises on youth vote and ragged May.

6/5/2017

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     Three days to go and the race is tightening up and Theresa May is in panic mode. When she called the election, the Conservatives had three more years to go but she gambled, and called an unnecessary and expensive election, hoping to get an even stronger mandate to negotiate Brexit or so she claimed at the time.
     She should have learned from her predecessor, Cameron who called a referendum  on Brexit and had to step down when the people narrowly voted to leave, splitting the country between urban and rural; old whites fearing for their way of life ( the Poles were a particular target) and the young seeing greater opportunities in the European Union. London, the financial center voted overwhelmingly  to stay ( it fears that banks and other businesses would leave)
     May also fell for the polls that showed Labour and especially its leader Corbyn trailing far  behind. Three terrorist attacks, two in recent days in Manchester and London have raised serious concern about security and May's ability to handle the growing threat. Her leadership and her somewhat confusing campaign and her failure to assuage fears about the negotiation over Brexit have gnawed at her lead and it is down from a high of over 20% when the election was called to one or two percent.
     Scotland , Northern Ireland voted to stay ( and Scotland is moving towards another referendum and Northern Ireland is looking for a way to use its border with the Irish Republic to retain the benefits of Europe),  and the prospects of the Conservatives winning seats there   are slim. Wales also seems to be backing out. The rural voters and the elderly will not be enough to carry May to victory and it looks like a minority government on the 8th
     May,s chances are quickly  fading. She is being blamed for "attacks", because of the cutbacks in policing spending  while she was Home Secretary (5 yrs.). This adds to her woes. 
     The election is over and May and the Conservatives got a drubbing ( the polls had up by 20%), losing as many as 17 seats ( 318), while Labour picked 34 seats (266). The SNP lost 22 seats(34), while the Lib-Dem picked up 4), for 12 ; the Dem. Unionist got 10( +2)'; Sinn Fein 7 (+3); Plaid Cymru 4(+1). UKIP the Brexit leader lost its only seat.
     The turnout was 66.1% up from 2015 by 2.6%, but down 3.5% from the Brexit referendum. More people voted 33.2 million than ant other election since 1992 (33.6 million). The Conservatives got 42.4% ( 13,650,900) to Labour 40.1% (12,858,652).
     The country remained divided as ever with English nationalists vs. Scottish nationalists; young vs. old; rural vs. urban; natives vs. immigrants and London vs. rest. Trade, tax, debt, immigration, Europe, austerity, cost of living, NHS funding, economic growth. housing and employment.
     Theresa May wants to remain in office and is working on a deal with Ulster Democratic Unionists, but it will be razor thin and will not last. She also faces attacks from within the party and the sniping and blaming has begun and she will not be able to withstand the onslaught ( even Thatcher and Major could not and Cameron resigned after the referendum ). So in a few months, the government will fall and the "savaged" Jeremy Corbyn ( by the media pundits and within the party elites who see him as a disaster), may be called upon to form a government ( who would have thought it possible). He certainly did much better than anyone expected but he was able to win the youth vote ( promising to spend more on education and taxing the wealthy).
     Britain is in for a rough ride. 
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    fig 2-b My Father and Mother to whom I owe everything

    "Ecce Homo"  ("Behold the Man"), Antonio Ciseri's depiction of Pontius Pilate presenting a scourged Jesus to the people of Jerusalem.

    fig 1-b


    figure 1-a

    F. Goya
    Two men fighting with clubs
    circa 1819-1823

    The Black Paintings Period


    (Fig 2a) The Death of Innocents


    Author

     Ishwar R. Prashad recently retired from over 47 years of teaching.

    He taught Political Science variously at Dawson College, Loyola College, Algoma University College, Sir George Williams University, Concordia University and Vanier College.

    Previously, he taught for nine years in Port Mourant, Guyana.


    He became Principal of Corentyne Comprehensive High School at the tender age of 21. During this time he turned down Scholarship offers to study overseas in England and the U.S.S.R.

    He chose Canada and after graduating from Sir George Williams with a B.A Honours with Distinction, he accepted a Fellowship to complete his graduate work at McMaster University. He completed his first two degrees-Bachelors and Masters- in three years.  

    His last position was as Co-Ordinator of Political Science and Economics at Vanier College and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Concordia University.

    He is married to the former Juliet Ramcharan (Library Supervisor, McGill University) and together they have three children – Indra R. Prashad, P.Eng. ,McGill (Presently Manager, Ontario Safe Water Drinking Agency), Ishwar R. Prashad Jr., B.A ,McGill (Presently, President, Kismit Gear Inc.) and Rabindra Y. Prashad, (Presently, Artist and Chef).They are the proud Grandparents of eight grandchildren-Miranda, Kamal, Ayesha, Élan, Anĵa , Étienne, Chloé, and Jasmine.

     

     

     





     



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