The presidential "run-up" has begun in earnest and the sillliness and the "clowns", the usual suspects but with different names, are dressed in "full regalia". Already the "acts' are getting stale and yet they persist, because that's all they know. There is no freshness, no vision, no daring new ideas and yet the "true believers" are lining up to cheer their "chosen one".
     There are the two "weather vanes" Mitt and Jon, who supported then but now does not, heajth care, cap and trade and moderate Republican views on social issues and the economy.There is Newt whose team has abondoned ship after too many gaffes. There is the "lone ranger" African American ( whose name escapes me), to ensure that the Republicans cannot be called the "white party". There is Ron of the Libertarian and then there is the Pal-in caricature, Michele, to captivate us with her ignorance of things American ...John Wayne Gacy, who raped and killed 33 young boys mistaken for John Wayne; Concorde New Jersey mistaken for Concorde, Mass; John Quincy Adams mistaken for a Founding Father and that the real FF "worked tirelessly" to end slavery, these same, who counted a slave as 3/5 of a white man for purposes of taxation and representation and who like Jefferson owned them and  loved them so much , they couldn't bear to part with them and thus, they kept them in captivity so as to have easy access to the women, for their pleasure. How those "Tea- Partyers" love her.
     Almost 17 months to go, and the " political pain index" is already insufferable but CNN AND OTHER CABLE NEWS, are delighted to bring "experts" to analyse and parse.
     "Iignorance is not a liability in politics, it is indeed an asset". Honest Abe.      

     The Davy/Silvio and Nico show has gone awry. What was supposed to be a quick and easy victory, over the "vilified' Gahdafi, winning them kudos at home and a revival of political fortunes has instead become a war of attrition, losing support at home and abroad. This was never supposed to be protracted, what with American purse, leadership and smart bombs. Instead it has become a fiasco and has exposed the weakness and disarray of NATO, without America leading the way, financing and directing the war.
     America has been overextended both financially and militarily and Congress and the people are tired of paying for wars that have no end and cost hundred of billions, money which they feel should be spent at home to deal with their financial woes... reduce the deficit, create jobs, save homes etc. At the beginning, all was well. The war was well funded (America picked about 75%, with help from the Saudis and Bahranis) and coordinated, but with America's pull back and with NATO in charge, the funds have been limited and the coordination has gone to "hell".
     Europe with its financial problems (especially in the PIIGS...Portugal Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), and with Germany, its biggest and most stable economy more interested in saving the Euro, cannot pick up the slack. Furthermore, Berlusconi has had two "slaps" in the face from voters, losing in the local elections and in the past week's referendum and with his personal problems is distracted and severely weakened. Sarkozy is trailing badly in the polls to both the Socialists and the "le Pennists, and really needs a quick victory and an end to the war, and thus the rush to kill Gadhafi (could win some kudos, as Obama got for bin Laden)  and Cameron faces a fractious Coalition and growing criticism. 
     Russia and China sensing an opening has begun to court Gadhafi again and Turkey , with Erdogan easily winning a third term in power an an economy performing well, is increasingly becoming the  major player in the Middle East. Hizballah has taken over power in Lebanon and the severe clamp down in Yemen and Syria has exposed the limitations of Western "power and influence".
     The political map of the Middle East is being redrawn. Turkey, Russia and to a lesser extent China are the leading players. America is handicapped with its "preferred" support for Israel and the old colonial powers, Britain, France and Italy are a shadow of their old self, clutching with desperation at the coattails of a diminished America.  

     Born in violence from the "chopped off shoulders" of India, Pakistan throuhhout its histrory has been awashed in violence. It is Punjabis vs. Sindis; Sunnis vs Shia vs Mohajirs(those muslims who came from India after the partition), with the few Christians under seige; a weak civilian government; a military that is divided between factions; the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) with its own agenda,; the Taliban, drawn from the Afghan refugees (mainly Pushtuns) and conditioned in the madrassahs by the ISI to represent its interests in Afghanistan and to fight India in Kashmir; various armed and extreme religious groups in the North-west and Waziristan, remnants of al-Qaida using it as a refuge from its depredations in Afghanistan , drug lords and weapons merchants and used by the Americans as a proxy in its fight against terrorism, Pakistan is on the brink.
     Violence is everywhere and there seems to be no end to it. Bombings in Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Karachi, the Swat Valley, in markets, in mosques, against the police, the military and each other. Of course it is the civilians that bear the brunt of it. Preached to, critized, condemned , and funded by its American friend who subject it to daily drone attacks, that kill and maim innocent bystanders, who then rail against the government and are radicalised, Pakistan is ungovernable.
     The Americans will withdraw again, as they did in the late 80's, when they become tired of the war and the $100 billion a year that it cost. It is just a matter of time, especially as more and more  Americans turn against the war (the killing of bin Ladin was a double sided sword, the hated symbolof 9/11 is no more and so "mission accomplished"), as presidential elections come nearer and nearer. The only remaining selling point is Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the risk that it may fall in the hands of the extremists. Once America is able to work out a deal to "secure" these weapons, the war can be fought by drones, Obama can declare victory and the troops can be brought home.
     This will result in a final convulsion in Pakistan, civil war and the break up of the country. The 25 million Pashtuns in Pakistan and Afghanistan can finally get their own country, the Waziris, and the Baluchis will get theirs and the Punjabis and thSidlis can fight over what is left. There will be years of turmoil and the volitality in the region will be a threat to especially India, that is why they are so closely engaged in the fate of Afghanistan.     

     The new parliament elected the youngest Speaker, quite reflective of the more than one-third first timers, many of them in their twenties and thirties. He won on the sixth ballot defeating his NDP rival with the help of the Ref-Cons majority. He was previously deputy speaker, so he has had some experience dealing with the sometimes unruly and loud members.
     The first-timers have so far had little to do, except watching their seniors, during question period and the presentation of the Budget, which except for a promise to harmonise the federal and provincial sales tax and give Quebec $2.2 billions and to get rid of the $2 -per-vote (each party is given this based on their support in the election) in three years. The first had been promised to Quebec during the election camoaign, based on the same having been given to other provinces and the second was seen as a political move especially against the Liberals who have had problems raising money (Harper had sworn to destroy the Liberal party). This was a stand pat budget, and the NDP, the Official Opposition quickly condemned it as such and accused the government of" doing nothing for job creation,health care, the pension system and climate change". The government will have to address these issues, but they have a secure majority and so can bide their time.
     In Quebec, the separatists Parti Quebecois is in turmoil and are once again turning on their leader. This time it is not the Nationalists vs the Sosialists, as was the case under Levesque, who angered the Parizeau's nationalists, when he decided to emphasise a social democratic and sovreignity-association role after winning the Oct.15, 1977 election. This time it is a revolt against the" high-handed" Marois forcing members to vote for the Quebecor/Quebec City arena. Three senior members, including Parizeau's wife, left the party to sit as independent and a fourth followed (this is seen as being directed from behind the scene by the ever-present, brooding and bitter Parizeau). "Queen" Marois has since backtracked and is allowing a free vote. Her leadership is seriously weakened, and its just a matter of time before, she suffers the same fate as past leaders, including Levesque. In the meantime their federal cousins. the Bloc, are all but forgotten, with only 4 MPs, they have lost their parliamentary perks and have to fend for themselves in the wilderness.