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Shades of 1988?

4/27/2011

     In 1988 the NDP was at 40% but it did not hold and they ended up with 43 seats. There was a very large turnout in the advance polls.This was during the period of the NDP surge. Will the Liberals be able to turn out their base? More than 800,000 did not vote in the last election. They need a large turnout if they are to contend. Many "experts" see the NDP winning over 100 seats and being in a position to form a minority government with Libreral support. They have to win in B.C and Saketchewan and Manitoba to get there. That means they will take seats away from the Ref/Cons. This is possible.
     The Bloc is panicking and their raising the issue of Quebec sovreignty is not helping. It would seem as if they have ridden this horse for the last time. They have little else to offer and they will pay a price and even Parizeau and his "lobster trap" will not suffice. Chretien and Martin are trying to shore up the Liberals and this may work, especiallyamong the ethnic communiyies.
     It is time for the Liberals and the NDP to begin the process of a merger. Thr Reform/ Canadian Alliance and the Conservatives have merged the Right successfully, so a merging of the Left is necessary or they will continue to split the vote and allow the Ref/ Con to continue to form minority governments, as happened in the Free Trade election of 1988, where a split of the anti-free trade votes allowed Mulroney to win a majority with barely 40% of the votes.
     The next few days will be crucial. Can Ignatieff pull a "stunner". He will have to reclaim the votes that have gone to the NDP and get their base out in large numbers, or it will be his end as leader of the Liberals. Turner did it in 1988 winning 88seats, up from 43 in 1984.
     Many voters have "parked" their votes with the NDP, and I see them coming back to the Liberals...Shades of 1988.

5%

Election Canada...The Week

4/25/2011

     A week is an eternity in politics and the upcoming week will be especially so, for Layton, who will be "on pins and needles with fingers crossed" hoping that the recent surge is not another tease, like it was for Broadbent in the 80s. Ignatieff will question why the voters did not move to him, was it the message or the messenger and will there be a last week miracle? Have they just parked their votes with the NDP? Harper has had to put out one brushfire after another and will wonder whether the voters have started to trust him or do they still think that he is hiding his real agenda and that he is indeed a "control-freak". Duceppe is panicking and has called in re-enforcement in the form of the "old lobster trap" Parizeau. Is it too little , too late? Has he been too laid back, just baiting Harper, while the NDP was "making hay", or has his "bogeyman" separatism run its course and no more "negotiating with a knife at the throat", because it has b become passe`?
     The campaign so far has not created any excitement or than "Jackmania". This is Canada and we do not get too easily excited, but spring is finally here and the winter blues and ennui are fading. A freshness in the air and Jack may climb the beanstalk and kill the giant (bore?). Now that would be very un-Canadian. We like the "stodgy".

Polls/Statistics and Bikinis

4/21/2011

    Polls/Statistics are like bikinis, significant not only for what they reveal but what they conceal. They are a measure of a particular issue at a specific time. What that measure is at any time is a reflection of opinions which are influenced by a variety of factors at play at that time. What those opinions are at another time, maybe significantly different when and if those factors changed or are replaced by other factors. They are as Shimon Peres noted like " perfumes, great to smell but dangerous to swallow".
     Polls are not scientific but merely a yardstick of influences and emotions.Thus the recent polls showing the NDP gaining in popularity, are nothing more than the recent headlines/scandals/missteps by other parties, for example the Blocs and its continued raison d'etre of sovreignty, the revealations of the Ref/Cons penchant for interfering with and their trying to influence appointments (the Montreal port) and their alleged fraudulent electoral actions (2008) and fears of Harper's "hidden" agenda, together with Ignatieff's failure to connect with the voters.
     The next week will be telling. Obviously, a majority Ref/Con govt. is out of the question. Will the turn out be more than the 60% of the last election? Not likely. Voters are turned off and will either stay away in droves or they will hold their collective nose and vote for the least likely threat. As such they are casting about for a place to park their votes and at this time, the NDP is the least threatening. At best the NDP will get some of those votes, but not enough to make a significant difference. Their support is too widely dispersed. They may turn to be the spoiler in close races, splitting with the Liberals, which will allow the Bloc to keep their seats in Quebec and maybe win one or two additional seats from the Ref/Con in the Quebec City area and in the 905 Totorto (Brampton, Mississagua) areas allow the Ref/Con to win seats with a slim margin of votes.
     A "pizza" parliament will be the outcome.

Canada Election Week 4....Another Pizza Parliament.

4/19/2011

     The Ref/ Con (CRAP), continues to have a problem with Harper's as "control-freak" and with transparency ( Helena Guergis who was dumped by Harper has held a news conference to point out her ragged treatment by the arrogant Harper, tears and all). They continue to play the separatsit"fear" card, but it is not working. They will lose seats in Quebec, even though Duceppe is doing little other than attacking Harper.the NDP is drawing support away from them and expect to pick up Gatineau and one or two others.
     The Liberals have brought Chretien and Martin to shore their base and to remind the voters that they were good economic managers. They have to ensure their "ethnic base" especially in the 905 area and Montrea l( in the last election the Ref/Con won no seats in Totornto, Montreal and Vancouver), and they are mounting a drive especially among Sri Lankans, East Indians/Sikhs and Chinese voters. The Libs.. traditional Greek, Italian and Jewish base is under attack too, especially among the youths.Any chance of Ignatieff winning is dependent on retaining this crucial vote, which in the past was taken for granted. They and the NDP are using the health/ home care/pensioner issues to counter this, but may slplit the vote and allow the Ref/Con to slide in a la the Free Trade vote in 1988.
     Only 2 weeks to go and a lot of voters are still sitting on the fence. Other than Layton, (and his support is scattered all over the country and not concentrated like the Bloc) none of the leaders have made an impact. It is the trust and hidden right-wing issues with Harper. Ignatieff is too sriff and dull and Duceppe is Duceppe.
     Something needs to break in the final days or else the "pizza" parliament will continue.

Sarkozy\\\'s War....A \\\"crusade\\\" to save his Presidency

4/17/2011

     He is desperately hunting for votes( down to the low 20s, the lowest ever for a French head of state) and he was aided and abetted by the self-serving Bernard-Henri Levy, who has never seen a "cause" that he could not exploit for his own glory, whether it be Bosnia or Iraq or now Libya. Levy made a trip to Benghazi and met with rebel leaders after telling them that he was a personal friend of Sarkozy and promised them a meeting with Sarkozy (Newsweek April11 ). The meeting saw Sarkozy recognise the Libyan National Council and it was decided to keep the matter secret from the Germans( who had reservations about supporting the Libyans) and from his Foreign Minister Juppe ( whom , Levy felt would "throw a wrench in the works"(Newsweek).
     Sarkozy was not only concerned with his low poll numbers, but he also saw a way to get back at Gadhafi, whom he had tried to "rehabilitate" in late 2007, by hosting him for a week but was rebuffed on oil contract he wanted for France. That would have been a coup for him. Sarkozy was able to convince a skeptical Hillary Clinton of the need "to protect Libyan civilians" and she was able to sell the idea to Obama on the same grounds, especially given his Cairo speech.The Brits were brought on board (this should be no surprise as Cameron was looking for a cause to bolster his support at home, where the economy and his austerity budget was creating panic eg drop in customer confidence of 20%, and of course the Brits are always looking for an excuse to re-assert themselves in the Middle East). Fom the Christian Crusades to the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire, the West led by Britain and France have been trying control the Middle Esat, because they, the Arabs, Persians/Iran, Iraqis, Afghans are incapable of managing their own affairs and that only the Western powers can do so. This Western arrogance /racism has been justified on various grounds...protecting religious sites, the threat of godless communism, the brutality of dictators, the need to provide humanitarian aid, international law/spreading of freedom and human rights. They have used these and other reasons, for example, to arm and insulate the Saudis, to create the state of Iraq (1920's) , as a counter weight to Iran and to carve Kuwait out of it, Lebanon out of Syria and to plant their Trojan Horse, Israel within their midst.
    These machinations have not worked. If anything, they have created wars, instability and misery. This new battle for control will also fail. You cannot win control from 30,000 ft.with bombs and even 'boots on the ground"will not work.
    The people of the Middle East are shaping their own history, and we, the West should get out of their way.

Canada Election Week 3

4/11/2011

     The Ref/Con had to send a handler to help Larry Smith, who continue to stumble, this time saying that the Ref/Con will reward ridings that vote for them citing as example Quebec City airport whuch got tens of millions for airport expansion. He also got into trouble for saying that the protection of francophone Qubecers is not important. Harper himself refused to say where the $4 billion of yearly spending cuts he promise, will come from, while criticising the other parties for their promised cuts. The Ref/Con continued to be plagued by their "controlled' access to meetings barring those perceived as not being their supporters. Their candidate in Mount Royal, Saulie Zaidel is accused of handing out pamphlet at a synogogue accusing Liberal incumbent Irwin Cotler, a fellow Jew, of being anti-semite.
     The Liberals had to apologise for remarks by one of their candidate's, John Reilly in Alberta, that not all sexual offenders should be incarcerated, which Ignatieff called "disgraceful". They also had to deal with a poll by Angus Reid that showed the Liberals with only 18% support in Quebec, behind the Bloc's 34%, the NDP 24% and the Ref/Con 19%.
     The NDP released their platform calling for strengthening public pensions for those under 40, creating 25,000 new child-care spaces in the next four years, increasing tuition tax credit to $7,500 from current $4,000 and to freeze tuition increases and to establish a job creation tax credit that will provide up to $4,500 for every new hire. The majority of these promises will be implemented right away, unlike the other parties.
     The Bloc continued their attacks on the Ref/Con on the loan guarantee for Churchill Falls, and their refusal to fund hockey arena in Quebec City.
     This week the debates will be held and Ignatieff claims to be nervous for this, his first.

Canada Election Week 2......

4/4/2011

     The Reform/Conservatives, also known as CRAP (Conservative Reform Alliance Party),starts week two down 2% (39%-37%) after Larry Smith's langauge gaffe, coalition fiasco ( now we are for it (2004), now we aren't(2011), backing down from a challenge to debate Liberal leader Ignatieff one-on -one, charges of elections rules violation against senior Conservatives in 2008, and polls showing Canadians do not trust him with a majority. They start week 2, with Harper playing street hockey to highlight their plan to allow tax breaks for adult fitness/ gym memberships, but only after the budget has been balanced. They are running ads questioning Ignatieff's committment to Canada, attacking him as an "opportunist" for returning to Canada after many years teaching abroad. I, personally find this troubling (as someone from abroad, who has lived in Canada for many years). There is a very nasty streak in Harper and his minions on the issue of citizenship....A canadian is a Canadian, is a Cnadian, one is no more Cnadian than the other. This is an example of the fear and divisiveness that they promote. They always want to personalise the election a la USA, with all the hatred for those who are not like them.
     The Liberals are up a couple of points after the first week and have released their platform. They had a good first week, when all the negatives were directed at the Ref/Con. They promise to slash spending, increase taxes on the rich, encourage home-owners to go green, allow voting on line, cut advertising, limit size of the cabinet and PMO and invest in technologies to reduce oilsands' impact on the environment. T hey would boost spending for aboripinal education,language training and pledged $40 million for a veterans' learning benefit. They will pay the $8.23 billion packet with "savings"...$3 billion in first year in office and from a 1.5% increase in corporate tax. Now they have to sell Canadians on this package.
     The NDP are up to 18% in the polls. They continue to focus on health-care and benefitted from the Blocs' candidate racial comments that people will not vote for Romeo Saganash, because he is Cree. The riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, covers half of Quebec's 1.7 million square kilometre and is presently represented by Yvon Levesque, who made the statement. This reveals the mean, nasty and racist streak that is just below the surface of some of the more nationalist/ chauvinist Blocquists. The NDP hope to increase their seats in Quebec with some high-profile candidates like Saganash.
     The Bloc, bar this remark, are expected to increase their total in Quebec at the expense of the Ref/Con, especially in the Quebec City area, because of the hockey arena funding and the recent announcement by Harper to fund the hydro development in Churchill Falls/ Labrador.

The West as Dupes.....QuestionableIntelligence

4/1/2011

     Moussa Koussa is the latest "show-piece' trotted out to bolster the West's claims of Mammar Gahhafi's imminent demise ( Remember the crying Kuwaiti girl and her lies about babies being killed, and Curveball who lied about Saddam's WMDS). First it was the trumped up UN Resolutuion that gave legitimacy to military action to "protect civilians". Bombs fell,and for a while triumph was trumpeted and the rag-tag militia was lionized in the media and feted in Paris, London and Washington. Hillary was beaming, Sarkozy was puffed up, Cameron couldn't contain himself and Obama gave a speech. Then the "weather' changed and bombing lessened or maybe there were no more targets or, just maybe Gadhafi smartened up and armed his supporters and the "people's army turned tail, driving up and down the highway.
     "No boots on the ground", says Obama, American boots that is. Let the" puffed up" French and the "excitable" Brits send in the troops. That's the problem. They were eager for a war on former friend an trading partner Gadhafi, to secure oil contracts and to rev up the voters at home, and all was well, while the fighting that they did was 20,000 feet up in the air, but the thought of sending ground troops and suffering casualties was too much, for the voters would not be pleased (especially for Sarkozy, who is beimg out-fainked by the National Front and way behind the Socialists in the polls). Then you have the 28 NATO members, going in different direction. Germany want nothing to with war. Turkey is concerned with its Muslim image, but wants in the "white man's club"(EU). Italy?Spain? Ireland? Portugal? Easren Bloc? They lead from behind.
     Without America's lead, they are lost and so the Moussa Koussa card. This is the work of the Brits. This former Libyan representative in Britain was expelled in 1980 for threatening to kill exiled Libyans, then as head of Libyan intelligence was implicated in the bombing of Pan Am 103, and in the killings and torture in Libya, then after 9/11worked closely with Western intelligence agencies and then led Gadhafi's effort to get back into the international club. He met Blair and Bush sent Rice to meet Gadhafi, AND relations was normalised after Gadhafi gave up his WMD's.Trade and oil flowed, Berlusconi embraced him and his son was welcomed to the State Dept by Hillary.
     Now Moussa Koussa has used his "intelligence ' contacts and was brought to London. His "brain" is being picked and his presence is used to bolster the claim that Gadhafi's time is running out. The "rats' are trying to make deals and the West is so desperate that they are willing to forget past crimes. Ther is no integrity, no morality, no principle that will not be trampled for expediency...Oh, what a web we weave

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fig 2-b My Father and Mother to whom I owe everything

"Ecce Homo" ("Behold the Man"), Antonio Ciseri's depiction of Pontius Pilate presenting a scourged Jesus to the people of Jerusalem.

fig 1-b

figure 1-a

F. Goya
Two men fighting with clubs
circa 1819-1823

The Black Paintings Period

(Fig 2a) The Death of Innocents

Author

Ishwar R. Prashad recently retired from over 47 years of teaching.

He taught Political Science variously at Dawson College, Loyola College, Algoma University College, Sir George Williams University, Concordia University and Vanier College.

Previously, he taught for nine years in Port Mourant, Guyana.

He became Principal of Corentyne Comprehensive High School at the tender age of 21. During this time he turned down Scholarship offers to study overseas in England and the U.S.S.R.

He chose Canada and after graduating from Sir George Williams with a B.A Honours with Distinction, he accepted a Fellowship to complete his graduate work at McMaster University. He completed his first two degrees-Bachelors and Masters- in three years.

His last position was as Co-Ordinator of Political Science and Economics at Vanier College and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Concordia University.

He is married to the former Juliet Ramcharan (Library Supervisor, McGill University) and together they have three children – Indra R. Prashad, P.Eng. ,McGill (Presently Manager, Ontario Safe Water Drinking Agency), Ishwar R. Prashad Jr., B.A ,McGill (Presently, President, Kismit Gear Inc.) and Rabindra Y. Prashad, (Presently, Artist and Chef).They are the proud Grandparents of eight grandchildren-Miranda, Kamal, Ayesha, Élan, Anĵa , Étienne, Chloé, and Jasmine.

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