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Aftermath of Israeli Elections

1/27/2013

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     The desparation of Netanyahu, with his appeal to extremism, failed ( the alliance of Likud/Beitenu lost 11 seats to drop to 31). His attempts to outflank Bennett of Israel is our Home and his message of no "two-state", more settlements and nothing for the Palestinians (annexation, which would have turned Israeli in an apartheid ,minority, Jewish state), thankfully backfired. Shas (12) and its demands for continued deferment from the military and continued handouts from the government, when the country is suffering economically and living conditions are worsening was rejected but Yair Lapid of There is a Future, with his call for peace with the Palestinians, military service for all, including the Orthodox and the Palestinian/Arabs, more attention to domestic matters was rewarded (19) and so was Labor and Shelley Yachimovich(18).
     The voters woke up and slapped Netanyahu down. More than 6% more turned out and only 11 of the 34 parties won seats. Now the "souk" politics take over, deals and trade offs, inducements and even "bribes". This is politics at its basest.
     The Right have 61 seats and the centre-left/ moderates have 59. This allows Netanyahu to try to cobble together a coalition. What comes out of this "sausage-maker" will be unwieldy, rancorous and short-lived with elections in 18 months and for the new star Lapid, Isreal's Chuck Norris to capitalise with his moderation. 
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The Perils of the Second Term

1/21/2013

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     Jan. 20, 2013,at the 57th swearing in ceremony, an African-American, bi-racial man, who unabashedly calls himself a "mongrel" was sworn in for his second term as president of the United States of America. A historic occassion, surely. He was not given the credit for his victories, rather it was said by many to be the fault of the opponents, first the McCain/ Palin dreadful campaigning fiasco and then the Romney/Ryan flip-floping, disconnection. The brilliant startegies were dismissed, because surely, America was not ready to elect an African-American, especially one with the name of "Hussein. Well no one told the legions of the young Americans, the Hispanic Americans, the African-Americans, the Jewish Americans, the gay/lesbian Americans, the white female Americans, the changing demography of Americans, rural, urban, rich and poor, college-educated and not, the auto workers, the aged pensioner etc. all except " the old white men", the  monied and their ilk who were stuck to the 50s. 
     The times, they are a-changing. Get on board or get left behind.
     President Obama should be aware of the  pitfalls that awaits the "second-termer". I am certain that he knows of  LBJ; of Nixon; of Reagan; of Clinton and of George W. Here is a brief history:-  First Johnson, the accidental president who gave the country, the vision of the Great Society and then followed through with the Voting Rights Act (allowing African-Americans, especially in the South, to vote freely and equally), Medicare and Medicaid etc but was felled by Vietnam "I shall not seek, nor will I accept the nomination of my party for the presidency" and faded away a broken man. Nixon, who lost the presidency to JFK in 1960 and then the governership of California to George Brown and famously uttered that "you wont have Nixon to kick again", came back in 1968 and squeaked out a victory against Humphrey. In 1972, running on the platform of ending the Vietnam war with an "honorable peace", instead extended the war which cost thousands more lives but still trounced " the peacenik" McGovern very easily. He was however caught up in the small burglary but the big lie of Watergate and was hounded out of office, waving defiantly and still muttering tha "I am not a crook"
     Ronald Reagan, the 'amiable dunce" defeated the "wimp" Carter in 1980. He had kissed the blarney stone, sold America ( even as he sold products for G.E. in the 50s), a positive vision of the future " as a beacon of light".  He gave the country "voodoo economics", that eventually led to the 1987 failed "Savings and Loans" economic meltdown, had won re-election in 1984, defeating Mondale, mainly on the issue of military strength ( he expanded the defence budget to the highest in peacetime and saddled America with a huge debt). The failed assassination attempt in 1982 had turned him into an American icon.He supported right-wing military dictatorship in South and Central America, from Argentina to Nicaragua ( in the words of his U.N. ambassador, Jeanne Kirkpatrick "They are our dictators")  but he was eventually done in by the Iran-Contra Affair and left office with a grin and a tainted halo. He gave the country a huge debt, "constructive engagement" with apartheid South Africa and "plausible deniablity" ( when he did not want to answer a question from reporters, he would turn his injured ear to them and pretended that he did not hear the question or he would wait for his wife Nancy to tell him what to say).
     Clinton won re-election in 1996, defeating Bob Dole, on the basis of the economic upturn. His economic policies, had rescued the country from the  Reagan/Bush "supply side", "voodoo economics" and "read my lips. No new taxes", huge budget deficit and exploding national debt and had ushered in years of economic growth, but he was felled by the Lewinsky affair " I did not have sex, with that woman", was impeached by the House but avoided conviction by the Senate. He has been rehabilitated as America's 'eminence grise', spending his time campaigning for Democrats and for a better world, free from disease and poverty, "The comeback kid".
     Goerge W. won re-election, defeating John Kerry in 2000 ( both his victories were tainted, Florida in 1996 and Ohio in 2000 tainted ballots. It is  said that his first victory was an"election by the Supreme Court"). 9/11 happened on his first watch, but he used it to the fullest by declaring war on terrorism, started a war with Iraq and another with the Taliban/al Qaeda in Afghanistan, increased defence spending, bankrupted the country economically, ( undoing the seven years of Clinton growth and the budget surpluses). He had  won re-election with his his "You are with me or you are against me", declared "mission accomplished", mishandled the New Orleans  ( You are doing a great job, Brownie), flood relief, and left office, disappearing to his Waco ranch, with jokes about his ineptitude ringing in his ears.
     President Obama ended the war in Iraq, bailed out the banks, saved the auto- industry, introduced his health-care plan, revived/ restored Americas reputation which was in tatters,especially with allies, improved the economy and winding down the war in Afghanistan, won re-election in 2012. That he was able to do so much, when hamstrung by a "say no" Republican House is a testament to his team and his leadership. 
     The second term begins now. He has a somewhat chastened Republican House but that does not mean that they will not drive a hard bargain on the budget, Social Security and Immigration reform, infrastructure rebuilding and other domestic issues. It is foreign policy, mainly in the Middle East, that will test him. His dealings with a more right-wing,religious, settler-driven Israel; the nuclear program with Iran; the civil war in Syria; the growing al Qaeda network in North Africa, Egypt, Libya and the  Arab Spring, a full plate. Then there is China, but this will not be as testing as China's growth and reliance on trade with especially the  US, will be the the guiding light. It is China's dealings with Japan and other countries over disputed territories that is worrisome, but this too will be tied to China's needs and especially trade and investments. The two-track policy of security and trade , together with the internal pressures , jobs, the economy, environmental issues, ethnic tensions will demand that China's new leaders tread a careful path and this may make for a more amenable China.
     Good luck Mr. President. You have 18-24 months and then you become a lame-duck, for the next two years, but this is the period when you need to be very careful, this is when mistakes are made, so  do not let down your guard and become careless. There are many "enemies" at the gate, waiting to pounce.          
      
            
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Jan.22, 2013.....Election Day of Reckoning for Israel

1/15/2013

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34 political parties, vying for 120 seats in the Knesset, led by "Bibi", "Bennett", "Tzipi", "Shelly" et al, some newly created, others on the fringe and yet others driven by religiuos fervor, nationalism and zealotry.
     It has been a rancorous campaign so far and it promises to get worse as the date looms and the realisation that many will not win the 2% require to win seats and others, like the Likud- Israel Beitennu, the new coalition of Netanyahu and Lieberman  are losing support to the newly formed,more right-wing anti-Palestine Habayit Hayehud of Naftali Bennett, a former aide of Netanyahu. Kadima which was formed by the iconic Ariel Sharon and won the most seats in the last election is expected to fare badly and win no seats; Shas, the party of the Orthodox which favors exemption from military service on religious grounds is doing well and may win 11 seats; the Pensioners party, which won 7 seats in the last election is not expected to win any, so too the Green Leaf Party, the "on line" party, but the irrevent, Eretz Hadasha which exposed the use of big money in politics is expected to win at least 2 seats.
     "Bibi" Netanyahu and Lieberman's coalition was expected to win about 42 seats but after Lieberman's corruption charges, is now expected to still finish with the largest number, about 36, while Labor ( the grand old party of Meir and Rabin) of "Shelley" Yachimovich is expecting to win 18; Hatnua, formed by Tzipi Livni, (after she lost the leadership of Kadima) should win about 10,; Naftali Bennett's Habayit 14 and Israel's Chuck Norris, Yair Lapid (officer of elite forces) of the Yesh Adid 9-11.
      The splintering of votes and the new players makes for an interesting scenario, the day after election. Netanyahu is expected to form a coalition with the support of Shas, Hamayit, Yesh Adid. It will be the most extreme, right-wing, religious , settlers government of Israel, building more settlements on Palestinian land, legalising "outposts"(Netanyahu's visit to Ariel to change status of local college to that of a university and to the illegal settlement of Rechelim, to try and stop the bleeding of votes to Bennett (critised by British as an "obstacle to peace"). His proposal to build housing on the last stretch of usable Palestinian land east of Jerusalem, chopping the West Bank in half and thus denying the Palestinians their state.
    He is howling at the moon, unconcerned about international isolation in his pursuit of personal ambitions and power. 
    The continued seizure of Palestinian lands and the expansion of settlements will kill any prospect of peace and with it the two-stste solution. Rather it will eventually lead to a South African-style apartheid state with a small minority ruling over a ever growing majority....a small hard-line Jewish minority,( the  religious and the settlers etc) ruling over a majority Arab/Palestinian , with the same eventual outcome. Stop the madness.
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    fig 2-b My Father and Mother to whom I owe everything

    "Ecce Homo"  ("Behold the Man"), Antonio Ciseri's depiction of Pontius Pilate presenting a scourged Jesus to the people of Jerusalem.

    fig 1-b


    figure 1-a

    F. Goya
    Two men fighting with clubs
    circa 1819-1823

    The Black Paintings Period


    (Fig 2a) The Death of Innocents


    Author

     Ishwar R. Prashad recently retired from over 47 years of teaching.

    He taught Political Science variously at Dawson College, Loyola College, Algoma University College, Sir George Williams University, Concordia University and Vanier College.

    Previously, he taught for nine years in Port Mourant, Guyana.


    He became Principal of Corentyne Comprehensive High School at the tender age of 21. During this time he turned down Scholarship offers to study overseas in England and the U.S.S.R.

    He chose Canada and after graduating from Sir George Williams with a B.A Honours with Distinction, he accepted a Fellowship to complete his graduate work at McMaster University. He completed his first two degrees-Bachelors and Masters- in three years.  

    His last position was as Co-Ordinator of Political Science and Economics at Vanier College and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Concordia University.

    He is married to the former Juliet Ramcharan (Library Supervisor, McGill University) and together they have three children – Indra R. Prashad, P.Eng. ,McGill (Presently Manager, Ontario Safe Water Drinking Agency), Ishwar R. Prashad Jr., B.A ,McGill (Presently, President, Kismit Gear Inc.) and Rabindra Y. Prashad, (Presently, Artist and Chef).They are the proud Grandparents of eight grandchildren-Miranda, Kamal, Ayesha, Élan, Anĵa , Étienne, Chloé, and Jasmine.

     

     

     





     



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