Post Mortem

10/16/2008

      10 million Voters did not cast their ballot. It was the lowest turnout ....59.1%, worse than 2006, when 60.9%, turned out. More and more voters are tuning out, and this is troublesome. Uninspired leaders and candidates, broken promises, failure to strike a chord or to raise and deal with issues that resonate with the people, dirty campaigns and too many polls. This latter is drowning out the debate that should take place. It is insiduous and anti-democratic, and has drained the drama from elections.

      $300 million spent for more of the same. Harper's broken promise of a fixed election date , calling an election when none was necessary, was based on polls that showed that he can win a majority. He believed the polls and failed in his objecyive. We are stuck with another Pizza Parliament and the "dysfunction ", of the last one will be even more pronounced.

     The Ref/ Cons increased their seat count by 16. The Liberals dropped 19, the N.D.P. won 7 more and the Bloc won 3 more. Harper was shut out in Newfoundland and failed to improve in Quebec and more ominously, he failed again to win any seats in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

      The Liberals lost heavily in Ontario.........almost 800,000 less votes there. Dion failed to get his Green Shift going and his arrangement with the Greens flopped. This was the worse showing...26% of the popular vote, for the Liberals and Dion has to be held responsible. Let the leadership fight begin !!!.

     The N.D.P. won 37 seats, the second largest ( 40 ) in their history. They expected much more, so there is much work to be done. The Bloc , while getting less popular support in this election, increased to 50. They expected to do better, They are obselete and redundant but do not tell that to the Quebecois/e.

      So what is to be expected? More of the same...acrimony in Parliament, no new initiatives, the same old Harper agenda on the environment, on Afghanistan, on social issues.......jail sentences for the young, cut backs in the Arts and Culture etc., This will not be for long. Even though the Liberals will be in leadership limbo, this will not prevent gamemanships and positionings by all three opposition parties with an eye on the next election .

      I did not expect the Liberals to do as badly as they did , especially in Ontario. As such I did not expect the Ref/ Cons to do as well they did. As well, I thought that the turnout would be far higher. I have to do a better job reading the tea leaves or maybe change to reading tarot.

4 Comments

Hannah Deegan

10/17/2008 01:09:26 am

I think one thing we overlooked in this party was the fact that the left is split between 3 parties: the liberal, the NDP, and the Green/Bloc. While the Tories have the market on right wing voters, the vote for left is divided. I think the liberals did so poorly because people who were uncomfortable with Dion and his green shift plan had the option to just vote more left. Harper was wrong when he said that most Canadians are conservative. Many are disenchanted with Dion but were not willing to swing right. Unfortunately the Liberals do need a new leader, Dion is not a good front man, but I can imagine he will be very valuable in creating policies that will enrich and secure this country. Now the Liberals just need someone who is slick enough sell them. I am honored that our country has politicians like Dion, who is such an honest, intelligent and honorable man, but as history goes to show, those qualities never win an election

Ishwar Prashad link

10/17/2008 03:41:51 am

Very astute comments Hannah. You are right about the 3 way split ( happened in 1988 Free Trade election, when the Liberals and N.D.P. split the vote and allowed the Conservatives to win many seats in Ontario ). You are right about Dion's aloofness and his failure to conhnect with voters, which made the Green Shift difficult to sell.He is a man of intellect and integrity, and it's too bad that these qualities are not more appreciated.
Television changed election dynamics...more emphasis on style, image and personality and 15 seconds sound bites. Now the internet and blogs have added another dimension....lies, rumours,glibness and distortions dominate....ignorance is knowledge and " hockey moms " and " joe the plumber " have become the norm.

Daniel

10/22/2008 04:06:41 pm

Hello Ishwar,
It does appear that the whole exercise was a waste of time and money. I do agree that Harper is a tactician and he sensed that this was his best shot to get his majority. A weakening economy and a fractured Liberal Party that had a "weak" leader in the eyes of the Tories led them to believe that things would not get better for them.
I believe that the Conservatives ran an awful campaign, definetely worse than 2006. On the flip side, the Green Shift was a disaster for the Liberals on many fronts. Dion believed in it but most in his party advised that it would spell disaster at the polls. In the end, I beleive most Canadians in a general way support a cleaner environment and efforts to tackle climate change. That being said, they also believe in a strong economy. The concept was poorly marketed and on the West Coast, most believed the Liberals would bring in a carbon tax but not many believed that they would cut their taxes to offset the carbon tax revenues.

I have heard many comments about the iintegrity of Mr. Dion and there is little doubt about this but this does not win elections. Canadian elections are won by pragmatic parties that hug the centre of the political spectrum.

The Liberals have a huge task in rebuilding. They need to reflect on who they are. A new leader will certainly help but they need to do some real soul searching.

The reality is that they have been essentially relegated to being an urban party with votes coming from the 3 largest cities in Canada. They had little support in Quebec outside the island of Montreal and in BC they were left with 5 seats, mostly in the Vancouver area.

Hopefully, they can take this time in opposition to develop a new plan for themselves and for the country. They will certainly have to rethink their strategy to fundraise. The legislative changes brought in by Chretien have been devastating in terms of financing.

Ishwar Prashad link

10/24/2008 03:43:48 am

Danny,you are quite right about Harper's strategy, Dion's leadership and the failure to clearly sell the Green Shift.
Dion never had the whole-hearted support of the senior members of his party, Their ambitions got in the way,especially Bob Rae , the turncoat.It would be a big mistake, if he manages to become the next leader. Ontario, where the Liberals lost heavily, will slide further away.
The Liberals must not only choose someone who is articulate but one who can get his/her message to resonate with the voters. I have said repeatedly over the years that the voting demograhics have changed and continuse to change. The old Liberal strength among Jews, Italians and Greeks have diminished, especially amongst the second generation, who do not feel the same loyalty as their parents, who came to this country when the Liberals were in power and thus indentified with them. The old Conservative/Reform supoport amongst North Europeans....Ukrainians, Poles, Germans etc and those living in rural/ agriculture areas have held firm and are expanding to those ethnics who came to Camada more recently.....South Asians, Chinese, Vietnamese and Arabs. The 10 ridings that the Ref/Cons won around Totonto and the closeness of the races arouind Vancouver attest to this.
The Green Shift must be rescued and repackaged. It must be fully and clearly explained. Dion's inability to get his message across and the Ref/ Cons distortions blurred the issue. A better way has to be found to get the attention of voters. This require a leader who fully believes in it, as Dion does but one who must find the right chord.
The Liberals have to rebuild and refinance. They have to first get their act together. A fresh face/ voice is needed. Maybe it is time to look at Kennedy, Le Blanc and even McKenna but not Rae, Coderre or Iggy.
It is time for young Liberals like you to be more involved. Your generation has more to gain or lose. It's your time. I see that Dominic is running for the school board. That's a start.

Author

Ishwar R. Prashad recently retired from over 47 years of teaching.

He taught Political Science variously at Dawson College, Loyola College, Algoma University College, Sir George Williams University, Concordia University and Vanier College.

Previously, he taught for nine years in Port Mourant, Guyana.

He became Principal of Corentyne Comprehensive High School at the tender age of 21. During this time he turned down Scholarship offers to study overseas in England and the U.S.S.R.

He chose Canada and after graduating from Sir George Williams with a B.A Honours with Distinction, he accepted a Fellowship to complete his graduate work at McMaster University. He completed his first two degrees-Bachelors and Masters- in three years.

His last position was as Co-Ordinator of Political Science and Economics at Vanier College and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Concordia University.

He is married to the former Juliet Ramcharan (Library Supervisor, McGill University) and together they have three children – Indra R. Prashad, P.Eng. ,McGill (Presently Manager, Ontario Safe Water Drinking Agency), Ishwar R. Prashad Jr., B.A ,McGill (Presently, President, Kismit Gear Inc.) and Rabindra Y. Prashad, (Presently, Artist and Chef).They are the proud Grandparents of eight grandchildren-Miranda, Kamal, Ayesha, Élan, Anĵa , Étienne, Chloé, and Jasmine.

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