About 20 years ago, I was teaching a course in Latin American Politics and when dealing with Brazil, I referred to it as a " sleeping giant"
    Lula was in power and there peace in the land. Literacy and poverty were on the decline an health was improving   
    Military rule had ended and democracy reigns and there was hope.
    Brazil had a population of about 180 million ( now about 208 million), and with its huge resources and a more healthy and literate, it was ready to burst out.
   It did under Lula, competing and gaining respect around the world but that was shattered when Dilma Rouseff, took over from Lula ( he nominated her as his successor ). She was the first woman to be president and she was expected to continue Lula's very successful programmes. 
     She did but the powerful business elite, who had lost their lucrative hold on Brazil, which they had enjoyed under the almost 30 years of military rule, were chafing and plotted their return to power. 
    Dilma Rouseff, was charged with corruption and was impeached by Congress, 2/3 of its members were under investigation themselves, and so to protect themselves, they began the process. Rouseff proved to be too inept to handle this. She was removed from office and a new election was called.
   The " elites" were afraid that Lula would run gain and would win ( he was and still remained very popular ) and so they implicated him and he was charged and was found guilty by a very biased Court and imprisoned ( he is still imprisoned, professing his innocence but to no avail)
    Jair Bolsonaro, a former army officer, was chosen to run by the " elites" He ran a " scorched earth" campaign, promising to be  tough on  law and order, to overturn the populist policies of Lula and Dilma, to open up the country's resources, especially the Amazon( many have taken advantage of this and have been " clear burning "for agriculture and cattle ranching, despoiling the land, and even chasing out the indigenous occupants). 
    In the short time that Bolsonaro, has been in power, poverty has increased, health is neglected and literacy has lagged and now the COVID 19 virus is running rampant and bodies are piling up.
     Bolsonaro has called the threat a 'fantasy"and when questioned about the climbing deaths, he replied " What do you want me to do". 
     There are over 100,000 cases and thousands are dying . The health system has collapsed and bodies are piling up, so much so that mass graves trenches are used.
     The state of Manaus s one of the hardest hit and " lots of bodies are piled up on top of each other, without any identification".
     Brazil has become the " crisis center" of Latin America.
     Bolsonaro is incapable and unprepared for the task. He provides no leadership. He has no answers and his laissez- faire approach is driving Brazil to the brink.
     The " sleeping giant" of 20 years ago is now slipping backwards and it will take strong, competent  leadership,  which is sadly missing, to stop this  huge rolling boulder.  

     Canada is a country of regions, federally united by the British North America Act, 1867 ( now referred as the Canada Act after patriation in 1982). It is also a bilingual and multicultural society with two major (at founding) religion and many others like Hinduism, Sikhism and Islamic etc. 
   The Cabinet which is the center of power is "  federalised". This means that many factors such as regions/ provinces, language, religion, ethnicity, gender etc. must be taken into consideration when the Cabinet is chosen.
     Each province must be represented; the large provinces like Ontario, Quebec must have more members; language, English and French are key and so is religion... Catholic ( Quebec) and Protestant ( Ontario and others), regions with distinct and very important agriculture and industry must be represented and the growing multicultural population has become a top priority too.
     So here we go......1. Each province. If no one is elected from the governing party, then a Senator from that prov. may be selected or someone else from another party ( like when Horner, a Conservative joined the elder Trudeau's cabinet),.or someone, not elected but who  must then seek election. 
                                2. Large provinces like Ontario (4-9) and Quebec (4-7) and B C  (2-4)
                             . 3.  there must be at least one English speaker from Quebec and at least one French speaker from outside ( maybe New Brunswick, the only official bilingual province)
                              4.Protestant, Catholic representation, usually Quebec/Catholic and OPntario etc. Protestant.
                              5. Finance usually go to Toronto; Agriculture to the Prairies or S. Ontario; Justice to Quebec ( Civil law); Fisheries to Maritimes or B C ; Forestry to B C or Quebec; Ethnics ( usually Jewish, Italian, Greek, Sikhs when Liberals are in power and Ukrainian, ( especially) when Conservatives are in power, also the already mentioned). 
                          6. Maybe younger members may be appointed as Junior ministers to allow them to get some experience and also to try to attract young voters 
     In the just concluded election, the Liberals will form a minority government and they did not elect anyone from the resource and agriculture rich, Saskatchewan or Alberta and must find someone to represent these two provinces in the Cabinet. Perhaps Trudeau ca appoint, long-serving  Ralph  Goodale ( who lost his seat) to the Senate and name him to represent Sask. and must find someone from Alberta ( probably do as his father did and lure a Conservative
     It is a time-consuming and very delicate task and it is perilous to ignore the " cabinet conventions".

     The election is over but the " spin" takes over. 
Trudeau claims a " clear mandate", Scheer's Conservatives won the popular vote; the Bloc is revived and the NDP finds itself broke.
What is " clear mandate"? If he is saying that he will govern with respect and responsibility; that he will heed the call for transparency; that he will not coddle rich donors and corporations; that he understands the message fro Sask. and Alberta, where the Liberal won no seats; that Committees will be more amenable to Opposition concerns O( he has to, because now Committees will not be dominated with a Liberal majority and that he will not , like Joe Clarke in 1979 govern as if " he has a majority", but more like his father in 1972, getting the support of the NDP and Greens and even the Bloc.
    The lost 29 seats, including that of " old war horse" Goodale; the Conservatives won the popular vote and increased by 26 seats; thw NDP lost 15 seats the Bloc picked 22 and the Greens i.
     The seat count is ...Libs. 157; the Cons. 121; the Bloc 32; the NDP 24; the Greens 3 and the PC of Bernier none. Former Lib.Justice minister Wilson-Raybould won as an Independent but Philpott lost.
The 33.06% that the Liberals won is the lowest since 1867 ( Canadian Union), when John A. MacDonald formed a government with 34.8% of the votes. This is not a " clear mandate"
for Trudeau

Thisd election once again exposes the flaws of the " 1st past the post:, which favors a two party system.
If this election had been under Proportional Representation, The Conservatives would have won 117 seats, the Liberals 112; the NDP, 54; the Bloc 26; the Greens 22 and the PPC 5; Ind. 1....
     In 1979, Pierre Trudeau's Liberal won more votes but the Clarke Conservatives won more seats.
     Justin Trudeau can govern     for the next two years at least. He will need support from the NDP and the Greens for a progressive program on such issues as climate change, pharmacare etc. and on pipelines, the Conservatives will grudgingly support him.
This government can last, because the NDP is broke and cannot fight an early election and the Bloc will want to savor its " come back".,The Conservatives, well , they may soon have a leadership battle ( they just love to "eat" their leaders).
Minority governments have been good for Canadians ( Pearson from 1963-1968 and Trudeau sr. 1972-1974 are great examples. This type of government will have to make compromises, take the concerns of the other parties, especially the NDP and  even the Bloc, but here it has to be careful,not to be drawn into its nationalists demands and it has reckon with " western alienation" ( Pierre Trudeau lost the West because of his arrogance..." I was not elected to sell your wheat",Petro Canada but Chretien won some back with his reconciliation politics). Trudeau can learn from these examples... less Trudeau and more Chretien.
    Now let  the"ball" roll.      
  

     The C A Q government has decide to enact legislation to forbid the wearing of religious symbols for public employees such as teachers, civil servants , judges, police etc. 
This would infringe on the religious freedom protected by both the federal and Quebec's  Charter of Rights and so ( in admission), the Legault government has decided to act to protect against any court ruling by including a not withstanding clause in it. 
There have been opposition from many groups and individuals, including the authors of the Taylor/Bouchard commission ( which had agreed on bans on police and judges). The English School Board and others including the Mayor of Montreal, Muslim and Jewish and Sikh organisations and Even the United Nations Rights agency. 
There will be a court challenge and Legault will have to use the not withstanding clause but this will cause even more concerns and damage Quebec's reputation at home and abroad.
Trump was " royally" feted and had his ego massaged by Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, from a 16 hole golf with a double cheeseburger lunch to a sumo wrestling match, where ( against tradition), he was allowed to sit on a chair) and he was allowed to present the trophy to the winner and then " a couple's dinner wit the Abes.
On Monday he will meet the newly crowned emperor Narehito and will be the guest of honor at a banquet hosted by the emperor which says is historical and not done in 200 years.
Suitably stroked and feted Trump announced that trade talks with Japan, (a contentious  issue),will be postponed until after the July election, which spares  Abe from any problems /criticism arising from it and gives a better chance.
Theresa held out for as long as she could but her time has run out and she will resign from office in June. She tried variously to get support for her Brexit deal but failed miserably, defeated time and again  in votes in the Commons, sparking rebellion and resignations by ministers and members of the Conservative party.
There will be a leadership race and so far no one has come forward but it is expected that the pedantic and garrulous  Boris Johnson will be in it.
Woe to the one who becomes leader of this dispirited and divided party. It took a shellacking in recent local elections, a sign of what's to come in the general election, which is expected later this year.

     Jane Philpott, former cabinet minister of Treasury Board and previous minister of Health resigned on a matter of principle ( very rare in politics as most are concerned with their status and career), stating that " I must abide with my core values, my ethical responsibilities and constitutional obligations"..... "There can be a cost to acting on one's principles but there is a  bigger cost to abandoning them" and she chose her values, her ethics and her principles and resigned rather than her political ambition and career.
     This is rare in politics as most are wont to pursue ambition and career and thus ( in our parliamentary/cabinet. fusion of power system), defend policies and decisions of cabinet/government that clash with their values/principles.
    She could not and thus her resignation ......" in Canada, the constitutional convention of cabinet solidarity means, among other things, that ministers are expected to defend all cabinet decisions. A minister must always e prepared to defend other ministers publiclty, and must speak in support of the government and its policies"......." Given this convention and the current circumstances, it is untenable for me to continue to serve as a Cabinet minister".
    Untenable, because of the pressure put on fellow minister, Wilson-Raybould and " the independence and integrity of our justice system". Philpott and JSR had worked closely on a variety of issues like assisted dying and cannabis bills and had formed a mutual respect club and had become friends ( Philpott thanked JWR on helping her understand and improve her understanding of First Nations issues).
     From all reports, Philpott was one of the most competent minister,  greatly respected by her colleagues and Trudeau ( unlike in the JWR, case), noted that that and praised her service.
     Why did he not praise and thank JSW? For one, she stood up to him, confronted him, turned away pressure from PMO and PCO and others and withstood the whispering,( racist, sexist, personal...she's arrogant, not a team player, taking advice from her father etc.), campaign, on the deferred, remedial arrangement with SNC. She chose not to resign, forcing Trudeau's hand, and he had to shuffle out of her position and demoted her to Veterans Affairs ( there have bee 5 ministers so far, treated as a dumping ground... no respect for Veterans, it would seem).
    Then she resigned . Why now? It was because now as Veterans minister she would have to be a team player agreeing with all that the government and Cabinet decide and she could not do that ( as AG, she protected the Rule of Law, independent of her position as Justice minister...she did not have to be a team player but and independent actor).
     This is what Philpott is saying with her resignation...she could not support Cabinet positions as required ...." all for one and one for all" principle of Cabinet Unity and Solidarity.
     So here we are, with Trudeau and the Liberals caught in whirlpool of their own making, that threatens to ring down the government. This matter could have been resolved by simply coming out and stating their case about the need to allow SNC make a deal. They could have sold it easily, given the importance of SNC, the need to compete with other corporations of US, UK, etc. who have laws allowing for deferred prosecution. Instead Trudeau tried to play ard all with a principled minister who took er job as Attorney General and protecting the integrity of the very seriously  
     This is the first time in recent years that a Minister has resigned on principle. This takes character and integrity  

     The Trudeau government and Trudeau himself as well as his P M O ( esoecially, Telford and Tubbs), find themselves aught in a web of deceit and corruption.
     The treatment of former Justice minister and Attorney-General, Jody Wilson-Raybould, was ham-handed and raised doubts about the competence of Trudeau and his advisers and of possible conflict on interest and interfering in the in a legal matter, involving fraud and corruption charges against S N C- Lavalin and whether they sought and were prtomised special treatment.
     Jody Wilson-Raybould was shuffled out of her position of Justice minister and placed in the of Veterans Affairs minister, a clear demotion. When she was selected as Justice minister, it was seen as a strong message to the First Nations and as a sign that Trudeau was determined to keep his promise to deal with the on an equal basis. She was the first of her people to hold that most senior position and was celebrated by First Nations and most Canadians. 
     She did a good enough job in the three years she was there and Trudeau commended her. She was very firm about maintaining the independence and integrity of the office of Attorney-General and to ensure that the Judiciary and the Rule of Law was kept free from political pressure and influence and for this she was removed, when she did not play ball with the P M O 's wish to go easy with S N C.
     What happened? S N C was up on charges of fraud and corruption and they tried to use their position as a Quebec-based engineering behemoth to lobby the government to not take them to criminal trial but instead to allow a plea bargain ....known as a deferred prosecution agreement. 
     This agreement had been put in place in the 500+ page 2018 budget ( a non-money measure stuck in the last pages to avoid scrutiny), after the firm had met and lobbied the Prime Minister's Office on more than a dozen times ( they have also donated much to the Liberals and recently was charged and convicted for illegal donations, through employees). It was a sweetheart deal, which would allow for plea bargaining but no criminal charges, which would be financially detrimental ( S N C-Lavalin had already been suspended from bidding on World Bank projects for 10 years because of previous  conviction of corruption/bribery.
     According to the Globe and Mail, the P M O was putting pressure on Wilson-Raybould to intervene with  the Director of Public Prosecutions, Kathleen Roussel, who was proceeding with criminal charges against S N C. They wanted her to take over the file but she refused and was then shuffled out of Justice and a new amenable David Lametti ( and it would seem from his recent comments ).
     Trudeau kept Wilson-Raybould in the Cabinet as Veterans Affairs minister. This is interesting for two reasons. One, it would show that while he was not satisfied with her performance as Justice minister he still had confidence in her ability, albeit in a minor position but more importantly, two, she as a member of the Cabinet will be a team player and play along. 
She did not and resigned after Trudeau claimed he met her twice in B.C. and that he had " full confidence" in her. 
     As Justice minister, Wilson-Raybould was bound by the cabinet principles of Individual and Collective Responsibility ( as I used to tell my students, it is like the code of the 3 musketeers of " all for one and one for all") and were important for Cabinet Unity and Solidarity, crucial in getting things done. But as Attorney General, she is responsible to ensure the Integrity and Independence of the Judiciary and of the Rule of Law. She had to make a decision and she decided that  her position of Attorney General was more important ( as she stated in her blog letter after her removal).
     Her action has completely shaken Trudeau and he came out flailing, attacking and blaming her and claiming that he did not " direct" her and neither did anyone else. He knows that she cannot defend herself, being bound by the Official Secrets Act and by client privilege, from which he has so far refused to free her. Also his " minions" are out whispering about being " arrogant', " sel-centered", " untrustworthy", " difficult to get along with" . 
     The Commons Justice committee made up of a majority of Liberals has met and refused to summon Wilson-Raybould or Butts or Telford etc. even as the Conservatives and N D P call for this. The Liberal's "trained seals" have voted against the " attack dogs". 
     The Ethics Commissioner ( appointed by the Liberals) is expected to investigate, but this will take months and beyond the next election, so this does not help.
     Meanwhile in Quebec, where, the company is located and where the political class supports it ( pride and jobs), S N C is facing a new R C M P probe on its contract to refurbish the Jacques Cartier Bridge.
     Trudeau is under intense pressure, not only to come clean but also to allow Wilson-Raybould to testify. He will dither and blame but ultimately will have to allow her to tell her  story as more and more people are coming to her defense , Native groups ( who accuse her accusers of "  perpetuating colonial-era sexist stereotypes that indigenous women cannot be powerful, forthright and steadfast in positions of power, but rather confrontational, meddling and egotistic), and women's group are also voicing their concerns and at least one cabinet minister, Philpot has signal her support and one Liberal M P.
     Trudeau who has shown that he is impetuous and shortsighted,( more style than substance), is now being exposed as vindictive and hypocritical. 

     The Chinese government has sent a clear message to Canada, by quickly sentencing convicted drug trafficker Robert Schellenberg to death. He had appealed the previous sentence of 15 years in prison but this was used by the Chinese to make their great unhappiness with Canad known. He can appeal this sentence but he has become a pawn in a political squabble.
Schellenberg was convicted on various occasions in Abbotsford, B C, for drug trafficking, so he is no  innocent bystander caught up in the China/ Canada, Huawei arrest. 
Canada had been used by Trump in the arrest of Huawei CFO , Meng Wanzhou, who was picked up on a US request and is under house arrest, waiting extradition on fraud-related charges ( she is accused of trading with Iran, which Trump had reimposed sanctions on. He erroneously ( all powers to the nuclear agreement as well as U S intelligence  agencies have stated that Iran was complying with terms of agreement), claimed that Iran was in violation.
Huawei, which is considered to be a front for Chinese intelligence, is allowed to do business in Canada. The UN and the other signatories to the Iran nuclear agreement have lifted sanctions on Iran for complying. Canada was hoping to curry favor with Trump ( we were at that time renegotiating the NAFTA-USMCA ).
Trudeau had once described China as the 2nd best country, because it gets things done quickly. Well, we have proof of that as they showed in the very fast manner in which, the death sentence was handed.  He wanted to have a free trade agreement with China and so was playing nice ( this is the way he operates...all style, little substance). He even angered Japan and other countries at the Hanoi meeting of TPP when he kept them waiting, hoping that the Chinese would be impressed. They were not.
The next move is  up to Canada and whatever Trudeau decides, will not benefit Canada. He has entered a errand and he lack the capacity to deal with it and neither is his  Global Affairs minister, Freeland.     

     Theresa suffered three successive defeats in the House of Commons, over her Brexit deal and a revolt in her leadership in her party was barely forced back, but it is just a matter of time before she is pushed out.
     Yesterday, the Labor leader introduced a vote of non-confidence but she was able to deflect it for mid-January. Her position is tenuous both as P M and leader of the Conservative party and she is held " hostage" by the Irish Unionist. 
     Her deal with the E U over Britain's exit is based on Northern Ireland remaining in the " zone"and this has added to the problems as the " hard" Brexiters, want nothing to do with it. She, is beat a lame duck and it is only her stubbornness that remains but her days are numbered.
     Macron came into power on a very strong vote for change and renewal but his embracing of Trump on Bastille Day and his policies together with his seeming arrogance has turned against him and his drop in popularity has bee precipitous.
     He wanted to reform the economic system, getting rid of some of the more entrenched social rights that the French have enjoyed since the creation of the 5th Republic, but it only resulted in widespread protests, strikes and massive demonstrations . His very presence in office is threatened and he either as to back down or use the emergency powers to quell the uprisings and that would be foolhardy.
     He has decided to retreat, pulling back from cuts to services, taxes on pensions and has called on companies to pay year-end bonuses ( tax free), but this was dismissed as too little too late and the protests continue ( signs of 1968, when Charles de Gaulle, at the height of his popularity was brought down...the arrogance/ hauteur).
Things started to go bad when Macron was seen as too cozy with Trump, marching down the Champs Elysee arm in arm, hugging. It was too much for the French. Add to that his " royal" pretense, arrogant and seemingly out of touch ( not surprising given his quick rise to power and his job as a banker)
     He is quickly being seen as shallow and uncaring and is time in office is sorely threatened. Let's see what happens this weekend.
     Trudeau went to India, dressed up in kurta and danced the bhangra and was shunned until the last minute by the Indian prime minister. He had boasted that he had more Sikhs in his cabinet than were in the Indian cabinet ( a sore point as the Indians were very concerned with the Kalistanis ( Sikhs who want to break away from India, and had identified some in Trudeau's entourage as Kalistanis). 
     He had previously gone to Vietnam to the T P P meeting and was seen as trying to curry favor with China, by delaying the signing the agreement. Japan and the others were not happy. 
     Trudeau seem to think that his boyish " charm"( hair,socks and selfies), would be sufficient but he soon learned that in the world of rough and tumble politics, that will not suffice.
     At home, he was glib about the pipelines, the environment and the trade talks. He waffled saying one thing and then doing the opposite ( just yesterday handing out $1.6 billion to the oil industry after talking about their effects on climate change in Hungary; talking tough about N A F T A/ U S M C A, and then acquiescing on dairy and tariffs on steel and aluminum). 
     He had a public falling out with Trump and now China is mad about the arrest and detention of a Huawei executive at the behest of the Americans. The Chinese, as expected reacted very quickly and detained two Canadians on espionage and trade delegations from B C and Canada were cancelled. More to come.
     Trudeau is facing a weak opposition and may be able to ride this out.
     Trump is in trouble. All around him is crumbling as more former employees and close associates find themselves in the cross hairs of the Mueller probe. Papadoploous, Cohen, Flynn and  Manafort, sentenced to prison or awaiting sentencing and many others are indicted and still others are under investigations and the Russian " collusion" probe continues with more evidence and  the noose is closing on him and members of his family.
     All of his businesses are being investigated both federally for campaign finance irregularities and so are his children, especially his son Donald jr. and his son-in law Kushner.  
     He is tweeting away, thrashing about and insulting the " rats", who have turned state evidence
    His popularity is at an all time low, more than 60% say he is a liar and his Chief of Staff is replaced and the Democrats are at the door.
​    Vox populi; Vox dei.   

     Women came out and  sent a strong message to Trump. 100+ women elected to the House, including the youngest, two Native American; two Muslim and at least one trans.
     The voting turnout in raw numbers was high, almost 113 million but this is just about 49% of eligible voters. With voter suppression in N.Dakota ( native Americans living on reservations especially), Georgia ( the Sect. of State, Kemp, who was running for governor, culled the list) . two Democrats, one for Senate and the other for Governor went down to defeat. In Texas the Democrat O'Rourke lost by a slim margin and so too did the Democrat for Senate and for governor.
The Democrats did win power in the House and now has the means to act as a check on the rampaging Trump. They have control of the budget ( no spending on the Wall etc.); they have control of the Committees and can investigate and hold hearings , even bring up impeachment papers against Trump.
The Republicans increased their seat count in the Senate and so Trump can still get his appointees through.. However the Democrats can still act to hold Trump responsible ( can anyone?).
Trump went on a rampage. He attacked those Republicans who lost their seats in the House. It was  vicious.
He immediately fired AG. Sessions unceremoniously. and named one of his " attack dogs" to replace him. This has immediately raised concerns about the Mueller investigations.
Then he held a press conference and it all went downhill. He attacked at least 3 reporters who asked him questions he did not like. First it was the personal attack on  CNN's Dacosta,( his W H press credential was revoked). He then turned on two non-white women reporters, calling one a " racist  and telling both to " Sit Down" ( yes massa).
​This aws low and beneath the Office, but the churlish Trump could not be stopped.